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Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports
After completing 42 of its 168 playing dates – exactly one-fourth – and 305 of its 1,230-game regular-season slate (thru Tues. Dec. 3), the record shows that an NBA team has been required to compete on consecutive days 83 times (13.6 percent of team performances). Eleven contests pitted both squads playing a second game within 30 hours or so, most often with some air travel involved.

While three of those leg-weary matchups were decided by four points or fewer, the average margin of victory for that set of 11 games is 19.2 ppg. (For the season as a whole thus far, about one game in four is decided by more than 15 points.)

Take last Saturday, for instance. Charlotte, Milwaukee and Philly all won on the road, while Indiana eked out an OT victory over Atlanta at home. The Hornets & Bucks traveled to Wisconsin, the Sixers & Pacers to the Delaware Valley for Sunday games. Philadelphia squeezed a three-point win out of the Pacers, but the Greek Freak et al hung a 41-point drubbing on Mr. Rozier and his new playmates.

The Advantage of Opponent Fatigue

As we reach the season’s Quarter-pole, there are a dozen teams (40% of the league) who have enjoyed the benefit of playing “fresh” against Tired Legs at least three times.

Four such blessings have befallen the Blazers (1-3), Bucks (4-0), Clippers (3-1) and Pelicans (2-2) while Christmas came early three times for the Knicks (1-2), Lakers (3-0), Mavericks (3-0), Nets (2-1), Raptors (2-1), Rockets (3-0), Spurs (2-1) and Warriors (0-3).

Welcome Aboard, Mate Kanter

Through three weeks and nine games, a Boston Celtic player was credited with an Offensive Rebound 84 times while opposing players tallied 346 D-boards. Those numbers calculate to a .195 OR% (No. 25 league-wide). Two weeks and seven games further along, Boston’s OR% had improved to just .213, still below the league’s average performance (.225).

Photo by Brian Babineau/NBAE via Getty Images
Over the last three games, though, Brad’s Bad Boys have snatched 51 O-boards compared to just 94 opponent defensive rebounds … a lofty .352 OR%. Enes Kanter contributed 15 of those second chances during about 50 minutes of run. The big guy’s game seems to be regaining its rhythm, too, as evidenced by his 10 – 22 shooting from the field.


Week 6 for the Green Team


Boston - 341

FG: C’s – 125-283, .442
3FG: C’s – 37-103, .359
FT: C’s – 54-67, .806 [28 conversions]
TS%: C’s – .546
OR: C’s – 51 + 8 (team) [minus 1 FT rebound]
DR: C’s – 96 + 10 (team) [minus 7 FT rebounds]
TO: C’s – 46 + 1 (team)
Poss: C’s – 300 {147 “Empty”}
PPP: C’s – 1.137
CV%: C’s – 153 conversions / 300 possessions, .510
Stripes: C’s – +24 [+12 conversions]
Adjusted CV%: C’s – 165 conversions / 300, .550 {expected production, 330 points}


Opponent- 326

FG: Opp – 118-259, .456
3FG: Opp – 46-123, .374
FT: Opp – 44-69, .638 [30 conversions]
TS%: Opp – .563
OR: Opp – 32 + 9 (team) [minus 2 FT rebounds]
DR: Opp – 94 + 11 (team) [minus 8 FT rebounds]
TO: Opp – 47 + 6 (team)
Poss: Opp – 302 {154 “Empty”}
PPP: Opp – 1.079
CV%: Opp – 148 conversions / 302 possessions, .490
Stripes: Opp – +21 [+10.5 conversions]
Adjusted CV%: Opp – 158.5 conversions / 302 possessions, .525 {expected production, 317 points}


Note re Calculation & Notation:

The number of “possessions” is an accurate count, not a formula-based estimated value. For purposes of clarity, the bracketed digit following the FT% is the exact count of “conversions” represented by those FTA’s.

“Possessions” calculation: FGA’s + FT conversions + TO’s – OR’s (including Team OR’s) – FT OR’s

“Conversions” calculation: FG’s + FT conversions

“Stripes” calculation: 3FG’s – missed FTA’s

TS% = True Shooting Percentage

PPP = Points per Possession

CV% = Conversion Percentage


Abacus Revelation for the Road

I never got around to it this past summer …

… but I did break down the 2018-19 NBA schedule from the perspective of a team’s “rest-advantage” games. While the league attempts to divide up the BURDEN of playing back-to-back with an eye toward equity, the same cannot be said about the divvy-ing up of the BENEFIT of getting to beat up on a tired team.

Here’s my evidence:

Abacus Reveals 12/03/2019 03:15:00 PM Edit
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