NBA Week 6 in Proportion: “Schedule Wins,” NBA benevolence, a timely return
Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports
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While three of those leg-weary matchups were decided by four points or fewer, the average margin of victory for that set of 11 games is 19.2 ppg. (For the season as a whole thus far, about one game in four is decided by more than 15 points.)
Take last Saturday, for instance. Charlotte, Milwaukee and Philly all won on the road, while Indiana eked out an OT victory over Atlanta at home. The Hornets & Bucks traveled to Wisconsin, the Sixers & Pacers to the Delaware Valley for Sunday games. Philadelphia squeezed a three-point win out of the Pacers, but the Greek Freak et al hung a 41-point drubbing on Mr. Rozier and his new playmates.
The Advantage of Opponent Fatigue
As we reach the season’s Quarter-pole, there are a dozen teams (40% of the league) who have enjoyed the benefit of playing “fresh” against Tired Legs at least three times.
Four such blessings have befallen the Blazers (1-3), Bucks (4-0), Clippers (3-1) and Pelicans (2-2) while Christmas came early three times for the Knicks (1-2), Lakers (3-0), Mavericks (3-0), Nets (2-1), Raptors (2-1), Rockets (3-0), Spurs (2-1) and Warriors (0-3).
Welcome Aboard, Mate Kanter
Through three weeks and nine games, a Boston Celtic player was credited with an Offensive Rebound 84 times while opposing players tallied 346 D-boards. Those numbers calculate to a .195 OR% (No. 25 league-wide). Two weeks and seven games further along, Boston’s OR% had improved to just .213, still below the league’s average performance (.225).
Photo by Brian Babineau/NBAE via Getty Images |
Week 6 for the Green Team
Boston - 341
FG: C’s – 125-283, .442
3FG: C’s – 37-103, .359
FT: C’s – 54-67, .806 [28 conversions]
TS%: C’s – .546
OR: C’s – 51 + 8 (team) [minus 1 FT rebound]
DR: C’s – 96 + 10 (team) [minus 7 FT rebounds]
TO: C’s – 46 + 1 (team)
Poss: C’s – 300 {147 “Empty”}
PPP: C’s – 1.137
CV%: C’s – 153 conversions / 300 possessions, .510
Stripes: C’s – +24 [+12 conversions]
Adjusted CV%: C’s – 165 conversions / 300, .550 {expected production, 330 points}
Opponent- 326
FG: Opp – 118-259, .456
3FG: Opp – 46-123, .374
FT: Opp – 44-69, .638 [30 conversions]
TS%: Opp – .563
OR: Opp – 32 + 9 (team) [minus 2 FT rebounds]
DR: Opp – 94 + 11 (team) [minus 8 FT rebounds]
TO: Opp – 47 + 6 (team)
Poss: Opp – 302 {154 “Empty”}
PPP: Opp – 1.079
CV%: Opp – 148 conversions / 302 possessions, .490
Stripes: Opp – +21 [+10.5 conversions]
Adjusted CV%: Opp – 158.5 conversions / 302 possessions, .525 {expected production, 317 points}
Note re Calculation & Notation:
The number of “possessions” is an accurate count, not a formula-based estimated value. For purposes of clarity, the bracketed digit following the FT% is the exact count of “conversions” represented by those FTA’s.
“Possessions” calculation: FGA’s + FT conversions + TO’s – OR’s (including Team OR’s) – FT OR’s
“Conversions” calculation: FG’s + FT conversions
“Stripes” calculation: 3FG’s – missed FTA’s
TS% = True Shooting Percentage
PPP = Points per Possession
CV% = Conversion Percentage
Abacus Revelation for the Road
I never got around to it this past summer …
… but I did break down the 2018-19 NBA schedule from the perspective of a team’s “rest-advantage” games. While the league attempts to divide up the BURDEN of playing back-to-back with an eye toward equity, the same cannot be said about the divvy-ing up of the BENEFIT of getting to beat up on a tired team.
Here’s my evidence: