Offense on the Up-swing thru the NBA’s First Month
Tuesday the 15th marked the 28th “playing date” of the NBA’s 2022-23 season, 210 “basketball battles” to date. The Sacramento Kings seemed to celebrate the occasion by hanging a whopping 153 points on the “soap opera” Brooklyn Nets – without the benefit of extended play, I might add.
Collectively, the NBA labor-force has produced these per-game “numbers” – last season’s average statistical performance through four weeks (209 games) is offered for comparison.
FG … 41.1 – 88.3 (.466) … [2021-22: 39.9 – 88.8 (.449)]
3FG … 12.2 – 34.1 (.357. 3PAr .387) … [2021-22: 12.3 – 35.7 (.345, 3PAr .401)]
FT … 18.3 – 23.4 (.783) … [2021-22: 15.2 – 19.7 (.770)]
Reb (Off-Tot) … 10.6 – 43.8 (OR% .243) … [2021-22: 10.3 – 45.5 (OR% .227)]
TO’s … 14.9 (TO% .132) … [2021-22: 14.7 (TO% .131)]
Pace of Play … 99.4 possessions … [2021-22: 99.5 possessions]
Scoring … 112.7 points … [2021-22: 107.2 points]
Wow, a 5+ point increase in per-game point production; through four weeks, a team has failed to reach 100 points in a game just 52 times, less than half as often as last season’s showing … what say we take a closer look at per-game scoring volume, again in comparison to last season’s opening month.
130+ … 32 times (.076) … [2021-22: 12 times (.029)]
120-129 … 84 times (.200) … [2021-22: 57 times (.136)]
110-119 … 137 times (.326) … [2021-22: 108 times (.258)]
100-109 … 115 times (.274) … [2021-22: 123 times (.294)]
90-99 … 44 times (.105) … [2021-22: 92 times (.220)]
80-89 … 8 times (.019) … [2021-22: 21 times (.050)]
<80 … 0 times (.000) … [2021-22: 5 times (.011)]
Has this scoring increase impacted the competitive level of play (at least as measured by Margin of Victory)? In last season’s opening month, about one of every six contests was decided by “one possession” (i.e. three points or less) – pretty much the same rate as “blow-outs” of over 20 points. Just under 50% of all games ended up with an MOV between 6 and 15 points.
1 point … 6 games (.029) … [2021-22: 7 games (.033)]
2 points … 16 games (.076) … [2021-22: 6 games (.029)]
3 points … 14 games (.067) … [2021-22: 21 games (.100)]
4 points … 9 games (.043) … [2021-22: 6 games (.029)]
5 points … 11 games (.052) … [2021-22: 11 games (.053)]
6-10 pts … 70 games (.333) … [2021-22: 59 games (.282)]
11-15 pts … 41 games (.195) … [2021-22: 45 games (.215)]
16-20 pts … 17 games (.081) … [2021-22: 22 games (.105)]
21-25 pts … 14 games (.067) … [2021-22: 10 games (.048)]
26-30 pts … 5 games (.024) … [2021-22: 14 games (.067)]
31+ pts … 7 games (.033) … [2021-22: 8 games (.038)]
Abacus Revelation for the Road
Home teams are winning three out of every five games so far
(128-82, .610), while the team compiling more successful three-point shots wins nearly three out of every four games (138-49-23, .738).
Make or miss league, indeed!
