Algebra on the Quarter System: Getting primed for the stretch run
Interesting that, for all the frenzy generated by three-point shooting in today’s NBA, nearly 90% of the Celtics’ “basketball battles” (as a dude named Most used to call them) this season have been won by the team that controlled the back-and-forth “Flow” of the game, huh?
Quarterly Reports
The last time the Celtics won the Q1 conversion battle was nearly three weeks ago in Denver – the subsequent eight Q1’s have produced two draws and six deficits. By contrast, the team held a conversion edge after 12 minutes in 10 of its first 14 games.
Through 59 First Quarters, Boston has been a .500 team in the matter of stops & conversions – here’s the breakdown for each period of play:
Q1: 26 “wins” – 26 “losses” – 7 “ties”
Q2: 23 “wins” – 31 “losses” – 5 “ties”
Q3: 31 “wins” – 25 “losses” – 3 “ties”
Q4: 35 “wins” – 22 “losses” – 2 “ties”
OT: 2 “wins” – 1 “loss” – 0 “ties”
Some Sundry Data
Despite all this season’s opportunistic performances, the Stevens Crew has been out-performed by its foes in both “Follow-up Points” (703 – 660) and “Points After Turnovers” (906 – 875).
Should we be concerned that, over the last 34 games, the opposition is +80 in “Free Throw Conversions”? The men in Green had been +44 in that category over the first 25 games.
And for what it’s worth, the bad guys have won 36 of 59 opening tip-offs – two out of three in OT, as well. On the other hand, the Celts have managed time at the close of quarters well enough to hold a 5,654 – 5,645 edge in total possessions.
Summative Equation (Season-to-date):
Bos – 2,756 Conversions + [+405 “Stripes”] {686 treys “minus” 281 missed FT’s “equals” 405 stripes}
Opp – 2,723 Conversions + [+237 “Stripes”] {538 treys “minus” 301 missed FT’s “equals” 237 stripes}
Expected Outcome -- +33 Conversions + [+168 Stripes] = C’s win by (66 + 168) 234 points
Actual Score: Boston 6,085, Opponents 5879
The Algebra of the “Average” Celtic Game
Note re Calculations:
The number of “possessions” is an accurate count, not a formula-based estimated value.
For purposes of clarity, the bracketed digit following the FT% is the exact count of “conversions” represented by those FTA’s.
“Possessions” calculation: FGA’s + FT conversions + TO’s – OR’s (including Team OR’s)
“Conversions” calculation: FG’s + FT conversions
1st Quarter
Points: C’s – 25.75 / Opp – 24.90
FG: C’s – 10.2 – 22.1, .460 / Opp – 9.5 – 21.8, .438
3FG: C’s – 2.85 – 7.51, .379 / Opp – 2.14 – 6.24, .342
FT: C’s – 2.53 – 3.27, 1.000 [1.4] / Opp – 3.68 – 4.78, .500 [2.0]
TO: C’s – 3.27 / Opp – 3.41
OR: C’s – 2.00 + 0.73 (team) / Opp – 2.41 + 0.66 (team)
Poss: C’s – 24.0 / Opp – 24.2
CV%: C’s – 11.5 / 24.0, .481 / Opp – 11.6 / 24.2, .479
2nd Quarter
Points: C’s – 24.10 / Opp – 25.54
FG: C’s – 8.8 – 21.5, .410 / Opp – 9.5 – 21.2, .449
3FG: C’s – 2.95 – 8.53, .346 / Opp – 2.39 – 6.49, .368
FT: C’s – 3.49 – 4.80, .333 [2.0] / Opp – 4.10 – 5.29, .750 [2.3]
TO: C’s – 3.92 / Opp – 3.69
OR: C’s – 2.63 + 0.61 (team) / Opp – 2.54 + 0.71 (team)
Poss: C’s – 24.2 / Opp – 23.9
CV%: C’s – 10.8 / 24.2, .447 / Opp – 11.8 / 23.9, .493
3rd Quarter
Points: C’s – 26.69 / Opp – 24.17
FG: C’s – 9.7 – 21.1, .457 / Opp – 8.9 – 20.8, .427
3FG: C’s – 3.07 – 7.41, .414 / Opp – 2.20 – 6.37, .346
FT: C’s – 4.31 – 5.49, 1.000 [2.4] / Opp – 4.24 – 5.47, 1.000 [2.3]
TO: C’s – 3.51 / Opp – 3.61
OR: C’s – 2.19 + 0.66 (team) / Opp – 1.97 + 0.75 (team)
Poss: C’s – 24.2 / Opp – 23.9
CV%: C’s – 12.0 / 24.2, .498 / Opp – 11.1 / 23.9, .466
4th Quarter
Points: C’s – 26.00 / Opp – 24.61
FG: C’s – 9.0 – 19.8, .456 / Opp – 8.7 – 20.4, .425
3FG: C’s – 2.73 – 7.76, .352 / Opp – 2.37 – 7.32, .324
FT: C’s – 5.20 – 6.66, 1.000 [3.0] / Opp – 4.92 – 6.47, .833 [2.8]
TO: C’s – 3.07 / Opp – 3.44
OR: C’s – 2.34 + 0.53 (team) / Opp – 2.76 + 0.64 (team)
Poss: C’s – 23.0 / Opp – 23.2
CV%: C’s – 12.0 / 23.0, .523 / Opp – 11.4 / 23.2, .494
Overtime
Points: C’s – 11.67 / Opp – 8.00
FG: C’s – 4.0 – 8.3, .480 / Opp – 3.3 – 10.7, .313
3FG: C’s – 0.67 – 2.67, .250 / Opp – 0.00 – 3.33, .000
FT: C’s – 3.00 – 4.00, .800 [1.7] / Opp – 1.33 – 1.67, 1.000 [0.7]
TO: C’s – 0.67 / Opp – 1.00
OR: C’s – 0.33 + 0.67 (team) / Opp – 2.33 + 0.00 (team)
Poss: C’s – 9.7 / Opp – 10.0
CV%: C’s – 5.7 / 9.7, .586 / Opp – 4.0 / 10.0, .400
Full Game
Points: C’s – 103.14 / Opp – 99.66
FG: C’s – 37.9 – 85.0, .446 / Opp – 36.8 – 84.7, .434
3FG: C’s – 11.63 – 31.37, .371 / Opp – 9.12 – 26.63, .342
FT: C’s – 15.68 – 20.44, .808 [8.8] / Opp – 17.00 – 22.10, .800 [9.4]
TO: C’s – 13.86 / Opp – 14.19
OR: C’s – 9.17 + 2.56 (team) / Opp – 9.80 + 2.68 (team)
Poss: C’s – 95.9 / Opp – 95.7
CV%: C’s – 46.7 / 95.9, .487 / Opp – 46.2 / 95.7, .482
Abacus Revelation for the Road
In an average second-half this season, the Celtics have outscored their opponents by about four points. Q2 has been their Achilles heel.
And don’t skip over that Q3 3FG% -- rather impressive.
Images: nbcsports.com; bostonherald.com; nba.com; turnto10.com