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The first 5:12 of Sunday’s series opener between the Celtics and Raptors – 12 offensive possessions per team – produced 16 points and 10 off-target Field Goal Attempts. Boston’s under-sized starting center snatched exactly half of those potential rebounds before yielding to his back-up. He returned to replicate his showing over the first 14 possessions and 6:54 of Q2, grabbing another six caroms out of the 21 misses up for grabs.

That’s one guy gaining possession of one out of every three available rebounds (.355) during 25 percent of game-time … the type of dominance one might expect of a Russell or a Malone.

But Daniel Theis? (The cool-headed German even went six-for-six from the foul line in Q4 of a game that wasn’t quite as lop-sided as the score might suggest.)

Depth at the “5”

After serving as the first “big” off Coach Stevens’s bench during the Philly Phandango, Enes Kanter logged a DNP Sunday – he had likewise not shed his warm-ups during the Celtics’ “seeding” victory over Toronto three weeks ago. (Kanter did deliver a double-double against the Raps on Christmas Day.)

Young Robert Williams got the call in Game 1. Though still foul-prone (four in 15 minutes), RWIII contributed six points, six rebounds and a couple of blocks. (The Timelord, incidentally, ranks second on the team in both steals and blocked shots per-36 minutes.)

Cause for Concern?

The C’s missed 44 of their 83 FGA’s and committed an unacceptable 23 Turnovers while hustling their way to eight Offensive Rebounds – a total of (44 + 23 – 8) 59 “Empty Possessions.” Toronto’s 53 misses, eight O-Boards and 14 TO’s add up to the same 59 offensive failures.

Effective clock management in Q2 and Q3, along with a Serge Ibaka Q4 flagrant foul, provided the Men in Green with three additional Possessions, thus a 47-44 edge in conversions.

The comfortable victory was forged through Striping … Boston’s 17 treys against just four FT misses created 13 points to just three (10 3FG’s minus seven FT misses) for Toronto.


BOSTON 112

FG: C’s – 39-83, .470
3FG: C’s – 17-39, .436
FT: C’s – 17-21, .810 [8 conversions]
TS%: C’s – .609
OR: C’s – 5 + 3 (team) [minus 0 FT rebounds]
DR: C’s – 45 + 3 (team) [minus 3 FT rebounds]
TO: C’s – 22 + 1 (team)
Poss: C’s – 106 {59 “Empty”}
PPP: C’s – 1.057
CV%: C’s – 47 / 106, .443
Stripes: C’s – 13 [6.5 conversions]
Adjusted CV%: C’s – 53.5 / 106, .505 {expected production, 107 points}


TORONTO 94

FG: Tor – 31-84, .369
3FG: Tor – 10-40, .250
FT: Tor – 22-29, .759 [13 conversions]
TS%: Tor – .485
OR: Tor – 7 + 1 (team) [minus 0 FT rebounds]
DR: Tor – 33 + 4 (team) [minus 2 FT rebounds]
TO: Tor – 14 + 0 (team)
Poss: Tor – 103 {59 “Empty”}
PPP: Tor – 0.913
CV%: Tor – 44 / 103, .427
Stripes: Tor – 3 [1.5 conversion]
Adjusted CV%: Tor – 45.5 / 103, .442 {expected production, 91 points}


Note re Calculation & Notation:

The number of “possessions” is an accurate count, not a formula-based estimated value. For purposes of clarity, the bracketed digit following the FT% is the exact count of “conversions” represented by those FTA’s.

“Possessions” calculation: FGA’s + FT conversions + TO’s – OR’s (including Team OR’s) – FT OR’s

“Conversions” calculation: FG’s + FT conversions

“Stripes” calculation: 3FG’s – missed FTA’s

TS% = True Shooting Percentage

PPP = Points per Possession

CV% = Conversion Percentage



Abacus Revelation for the Road

In four regular season matchups, Boston scored 103 points off 80 Raptor Turnovers while giving up just 77 points off their own 59 miscues – a 26-point advantage.

Overall, Boston won the season series 449-421 and enjoyed a mere one-point edge (35-34) in Striping.

Abacus Reveals 9/01/2020 01:47:00 PM Edit
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