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Every basketball game generates voluminous numerical data – I anxiously await the invention of the Dribble-to-Pass Ratio, for both teams and individual players.

In reality, though, there are three key team stats that can pretty much tell you the “who” and “how” of the outcome … overall FG percentage, total Rebounds and total Turnovers. When a team holds an edge in two-out-of-three of those areas, it rarely loses the game.

Oh, it can happen – just ask Steve Kerr, whose Warriors out-shot and outrebounded the C’s despite coming up empty Friday night. (The Dubs even out-converted our guys 50 – 47, but their 10-point disadvantage in Striping proved decisive.)

The Celts’ impressive 10-game winning streak featured two other such anomaly games, their squeaker vs. the Knicks and Wednesday’s shootout with the Wiz.

AP Photo/Rich Pedroncelli
Alas, the magic wore out last night as an unlucky bounce befell Marcus Smart’s potential game-winner and the Kings’ superior marksmanship and ball-handling proved decisive – not to mention their five-point Striping edge in a game where conversions were dead even at 44.


Game 12 at Sacramento


Boston 99

FG: C’s – 34-82, .415
3FG: C’s – 10-30, .333
FT: C’s – 21-24, .875 [10 conversions]
TS%: C’s – .535
OR: C’s –10 + 2 (team) [minus 0 FT rebounds]
DR: C’s – 36 + 4 (team) [minus 3 FT rebounds]
TO: C’s – 14 + 1 (team)
Poss: C’s – 96 {52 “Empty”}
PPP: C’s – 1.031
CV%: C’s – 44 / 96, .458
Stripes: C’s – 7 [3.5 conversions]
Adjusted CV%: C’s – 47.5 / 96, .495 {expected production, 95 points}


Sacramento 100

FG: Sac – 38-89, .427
3FG: Sac – 14-35, .400
FT: Sac – 10-12, .833 [6 conversions]
TS%: Sac – .530
OR: Sac – 10 + 2 (team) [minus 0 FT rebounds]
DR: Sac – 35 + 2 (team) [minus 2 FT rebounds]
TO: Sac – 12 + 0 (team)
Poss: Sac – 95 {51 “Empty”}
PPP: Sac – 1.053
CV%: Sac – 44 / 95, .463
Stripes: Sac – 12 [6 conversions]
Adjusted CV%: Sac – 50 / 95, .526 {expected production, 100 points}


Note re Calculation & Notation:

The number of “possessions” is an accurate count, not a formula-based estimated value. For purposes of clarity, the bracketed digit following the FT% is the exact count of “conversions” represented by those FTA’s.

“Possessions” calculation: FGA’s + FT conversions + TO’s – OR’s (including Team OR’s) – FT OR’s

“Conversions” calculation: FG’s + FT conversions

“Stripes” calculation: 3FG’s – missed FTA’s

TS% = True Shooting Percentage

PPP = Points per Possession

CV% = Conversion Percentage


Abacus Revelation for the Road

Surprisingly for a team that currently ranks No. 1 in Turnover Percentage (.106), Boston has been on the wrong side of the TO ledger in five of their 12 games to this point.

Abacus Reveals 11/18/2019 11:49:00 AM Edit
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