The Quest for Banner 18 after Nine Weeks – a quarterly report
Boston’s defensive effort thus far ranks in the Association’s Top Five in per-game scoring (No. 4), Opponent FG% (No. 3), Opponent 3FG% (No.4), Defensive Rebounding (No.5), and Opponent Turnover Percentage (No. 3).
The C’s are also a Top Five team in protecting the ball, No. 4 in TO%. Consequently, they’ve outscored their opposition in Points Following TO’s 18.7 – 14.9 per game. And despite falling in the middle of the pack (No. 15) in Offensive Rebounding Percentage, they hold a 13.2 – 12.0 point per game edge in “Follow-Up” points.
Other than a tendency toward streaky shooting (particularly in Q2) – aided and abetted by a usage rate for three-pointers that would have gotten any previous Boston Celtic coach not only fired but “committed” – the team’s Achilles’ Heel seems to be getting to the free-throw line. While the team’s FT accuracy has been Top Ten at nearly 80 percent, the Men in Green rank in the Bottom Three in both per-game makes and takes – Opponents accrue 10.3 “Free Throw Conversions” per game to Boston’s 8.8, costing the C’s a smidgen over two points per game.
Here’s a quarter-by-quarter breakdown of the season-to-date – data represents a per-game average.
Q1 [Bos. 27.3 – Opp. 24.3]
FG: C’s – 10.8 – 23.0, .469 / Opp – 9.6 – 22.0, .436
3FG: C’s – 3.2 – 8.6, .373 / Opp – 2.7 – 8.0, .332
3PAr: C’s – .373 / Opp – .364
FT: C’s – 2.5 – 3.1, .811 [1.3] / Opp – 2.5 – 3.7, .667 [1.7]
TO: C’s – 3.4 [-3.6 pts] / Opp – 4.3 [-4.7 pts]
OR: C’s – 2.2 + 0.4 (team) [+2.4 pts] / Opp – 1.9 + 0.7 (team) [+2.5 pts]
DR: C’s – 9.6 + 0.8 (team) / Opp – 9.1 + 0.4 (team)
Poss: C’s – 25.1 / Opp – 25.3
CV%: C’s – 12.1 / 25.1, .482 / Opp – 11.3 / 25.3, .444
Summative Equation:
Bos – 12.1 Conversions + [+2.6 “Stripes”] {3.2 treys “minus” 0.6 missed FT’s “equals” 2.6 stripes}
Opp – 11.3 Conversions + [+0 “Stripes”] {2.7 treys “minus” 1.2 missed FT’s “equals” 1.5 stripes}
Expected Outcome -- +0.8 Conversions + [+1.1 Stripes] = C’s win by 2.7 points
Actual Score: Boston 27.3, Opponent 24.3
Q2 [Bos. 25.7 – Opp. 26.9]
FG: C’s – 9.7 – 22.6, .428 / Opp – 10.0 – 22.9, .436
3FG: C’s – 2.9 – 8.4, .344 / Opp – 2.9 – 7.9, .370
3PAr: C’s – .373 / Opp – .347
FT: C’s – 3.4 – 4.6, .758 [2.0] / Opp – 4.0 – 5.4, .741 [2.4]
TO: C’s – 3.6 [-4.2 pts] / Opp – 3.7 [-4.1 pts]
OR: C’s – 2.7 + 0.5 (team) [+3.0 pts] / Opp – 3.0 + 0.8 (team) [+3.8 pts]
DR: C’s – 8.9 + 0.6 (team) / Opp – 9.9 + 0.7 (team)
Poss: C’s – 25.0 / Opp – 24.9
CV%: C’s – 11.7 / 25.0, .468 / Opp – 12.4 / 24.9, .497
Summative Equation:
Bos – 11.7 Conversions + [+1.7 “Stripes”] {2.9 treys “minus” 1.2 missed FT’s “equals” 1.7 stripes}
Opp – 12.4 Conversions + [+1.5 “Stripes”] {2.9 treys “minus” 1.4 missed FT’s “equals” 1.5 stripes}
Expected Outcome -- -0.7 Conversions + [+0.2 Stripes] = C’s lose by 1.0 points
Actual Score: Boston 25.7, Opponent 26.9
Q3 [Bos. 28.4 – Opp. 25.4]
FG: C’s – 10.6 – 22.9, .463 / Opp – 8.6 – 20.1, .430
3FG: C’s – 3.5 – 10.1, .348 / Opp – 2.4 – 7.6, .320
3PAr: C’s – .441 / Opp – .376
FT: C’s – 3.6 – 4.5, .802 [1.9] / Opp – 5.8 – 7.5, .774 [3.3]
TO: C’s – 3.7 [-4.0 pts] / Opp – 4.1 [-5.1 pts]
OR: C’s – 3.0 + 0.7 (team) [+3.9 pts] / Opp – 2.1 + 0.6 (team) [+2.4 pts]
DR: C’s – 8.6 + 0.7 (team) / Opp – 8.3 + 0.4 (team)
Poss: C’s – 24.8 / Opp – 24.8
CV%: C’s – 12.5 / 24.8, .504 / Opp – 11.9 / 24.8, .481
Summative Equation:
Bos – 12.5 Conversions + [+2.6 “Stripes”] {3.5 treys “minus” 0.9 missed FT’s “equals” 2.6 stripes}
Opp – 11.9 Conversions + [+0.7 “Stripes”] {2.4 treys “minus” 1.7 missed FT’s “equals” 0.7 stripes}
Expected Outcome -- +0.6 Conversions + [+1.9 Stripes] = C’s win by 3.1 points
Actual Score: Boston 28.4, Opponent 25.4
Q4 [Bos. 28.4 – Opp. 26.4]
FG: C’s – 9.7 – 21.8, .445 / Opp – 9.3 – 20.4, .459
3FG: C’s – 3.4 – 9.0, .383 / Opp – 2.4 – 8.2, .289
3PAr: C’s – .412 / Opp – .404
FT: C’s – 5.6 – 6.9, .801 [3.3] / Opp – 5.3 – 7.1, .751 [3.1]
TO: C’s – 2.9 [-3.2 pts] / Opp – 4.0 [-4.8 pts]
OR: C’s – 2.8 + 0.8 (team) [+3.7 pts] / Opp – 2.4 + 0.4 (team) [+3.2 pts]
DR: C’s – 8.2 + 0.6 (team) / Opp – 8.7 + 0.5 (team)
Poss: C’s – 24.4 / Opp – 24.6
CV%: C’s – 22 / 24.4, .533 / Opp – 15 / 24.6, .505
Summative Equation:
Bos – 13.0 Conversions + [+2.1 “Stripes”] {3.4 treys “minus” 1.3 missed FT’s “equals” 2.1 stripes}
Opp – 12.4 Conversions + [+0 “Stripes”] {2.4 treys “minus” 1.8 missed FT’s “equals” 0.6 stripes}
Expected Outcome -- +0.6 Conversions + [+1.5 Stripes] = C’s win by 2.7 points
Actual Score: Boston 28.4, Opponent 26.4
Note re Calculations:
The number of “possessions” is an accurate count, not a formula-based estimated value.
For purposes of clarity, the bracketed digit following the FT% is the exact count of “conversions” represented by those FTA’s.
“Possessions” calculation: FGA’s + FT conversions + TO’s – OR’s (including Team OR’s)
“Conversions” calculation: FG’s + FT conversions
