The Algebra of Venue: “Glory” road doesn’t stray far from home
As both Conference Finals stand dead-even after four games, Home teams have won 52 times out of 72 playoff games – that’s a winning percentage of .722, a pace for about 60 regular-season wins.
The Celtics have lived a Home – Road dichotomy post Game 82, 11 or so points better than the other guys at home, 11 or so points worse away from their friendly North End confines.
Here are the numbers for a 2018 home playoff game:
Summative Equation Home (9 games):
Bos – 49.9 Conversions + [+6.2 “Stripes”] {11.3 treys “minus” 5.1 missed FT’s “equals” 6.2 stripes}
Opp – 46.0 Conversions + [+2.6 “Stripes”] {8.1 treys “minus” 5.5 missed FT’s “equals” 2.6 stripes}
Expected Outcome -- +3.9 Conversions + [+3.6 Stripes] = C’s win by 11.4 points
Actual Score: Boston 108.6, Opponents 97.9
Average Home Post-season Game
Pts: C’s – 108.6 / Opp – 97.9
FG: C’s – 39.7 – 84.3, .470 / Opp – 37.0 – 81.3, .455
3FG: C’s – 11.3 – 29.3, .386 / Opp – 8.1 – 25.6, .317
FT: C’s – 17.9 – 23.0, .778 [10.2] / Opp – 15.8 – 21.3, .740 [9.0]
TO: C’s – 10.9 / Opp – 14.4
OR: C’s – 8.3 + 3.0 (team) / Opp – 8.4 + 2.2 (team)
Poss: C’s – 94.2 / Opp – 94.1
CV%: C’s – 49.9 / 94.2, .529 / Opp – 46.0 / 94.1, .489
PPP: C’s – 1.152 / Opp – 1.040
On the other hand, here’s a digital peek at “road work”:
Summative Equation Road (7 games):
Bos – 44.4 Conversions + [+3.2 “Stripes”] {9.1 treys “minus” 5.9 missed FT’s “equals” 3.2 stripes}
Opp – 49.4 Conversions + [+4.5 “Stripes”] {10.7 treys “minus” 6.2 missed FT’s “equals” 4.5 stripes}
Expected Outcome -- -5 Conversions + [-1.3 Stripes] = C’s lose by 11.3 points
Actual Score: Boston 93.0, Opponents 106.4
Average Road Post-season Game
Pts: C’s – 93.0 / Opp – 106.4
FG: C’s – 33.4 – 81.9, .408 / Opp – 39.3 – 82.1, .478
3FG: C’s – 9.1 – 29.6, .309 / Opp – 10.7 – 27.9, .385
FT: C’s – 18.4 – 24.3, .759 [11.0] / Opp – 17.1 – 23.3, .740 [10.1]
TO: C’s – 12.7 / Opp – 12.7
OR: C’s – 9.9 + 2.0 (team) / Opp – 8.9 + 2.3 (team)
Poss: C’s – 93.7 / Opp – 94.0
CV%: C’s – 44.4 / 93.7, .474 / Opp – 49.4 / 94.0, .526
PPP: C’s – 0.992 / Opp – 1.132
Poor starts have fueled these road woes:
Average Road 1st Quarter
Pts: C’s – 18.4 / Opp – 25.7
FG: C’s – 6.4 – 21.0, .306 / Opp – 10.1 – 22.1, .458
3FG: C’s – 1.7 – 7.6, .226 / Opp – 2.9 – 7.4, .385
FT: C’s – 3.9 – 5.1, .750 [2.4] / Opp – 2.6 – 3.4, .750 [1.6]
TO: C’s – 3.3 / Opp – 2.3
OR: C’s – 2.6 + 0.7 (team) / Opp – 1.9 + 1.0 (team)
Poss: C’s – 23.4 / Opp – 23.1
CV%: C’s – 8.9 / 23.4, .378 / Opp – 11.7 / 23.1, .506
PPP: C’s – 0.787 / Opp – 1.111
Abacus Revelation for the Road
In Monday’s Game 4, only seven Celtics logged double-digit playing time – the same was true for Boston’s close-out Game 5 victory over Philly in the Conference Semi’s.
During the C’s playoff journeys of the past three seasons of Stevens Ball, the young mentor seemed to be trying to break the mold of that age-old tradition, using his reserves (Greens, Jerebkos and Zellers) rather liberally.
image:Old School Basketball
