In an ESPN Forecast poll of potential 2016-17 Rookie of the Year winners, Jaylen Brown finished sixth behind Ben Simmons, Kris Dunn, Brandon Ingram, Buddy Hield and Joel Embiid. Earlier this summer we discussed Brown's odds to be named NBA ROY, tied for 12th at 20/1.
That might seem like a great bet for the No. 3 pick in the draft, but in Brown's case, it's not. The 19-year-old Cal product could be a superstar in the making, potentially even a very good player for the Celtics this season...
...but he's not going to win Rookie of the Year.
ROYs are guys who start and put up big numbers on bad teams, not role players off the bench on playoff squads. Brown's best-case scenario on the Celtics this year is backing up Jae Crowder as the first or second man off the bench (along with Marcus Smart). However, he could also wind up behind Terry Rozier, Gerald Green and Jonas Jerebko on the depth chart.
Here's a screenshot from Basketball-Reference.com of the ROY winners since 2000:
The last team to post a winning record with a ROY on the roster was Amar'e Stoudemire's 2002-03 Suns, who went 44-38 (Derrick Rose's 2008-09 Bulls were 41-41). But of even greater importance, take a look at the minutes per game--all but one averaged over 30, with many close to 40. Mike Miller at 29.1 is the anomaly. Chances are Brown won't see anywhere close to 30 minutes a night, something in the neighborhood of 20 is a lot more likely.
It's a rare thing for a top rookie to play on a good team, which is great for the Celtics, but not for Brown's Rookie of the Year campaign.
Follow Mark Van Deusen on Twitter @LucidSportsFan Mark Van Deusen 7/28/2016 12:34:00 PM Tweet Edit