How point spreads work in NBA betting

Point spread bets are a popular basketball and NBA betting choice. Betting on the point spread is about leveling the playing field between different teams. It gives bettors a different focus over the simplified moneyline ‘bet on the winner’ wagers. With point spreads, bettors can wager on the underdogs and favorites equally. In this article, we’ll give you all the information you need to be able to bet on point spreads in NBA games.


What is a point spread?


In basketball betting and other sports like football and hockey, the point spread is a type of betting line. To put it simply, it is a bet that predicts the difference in points between teams. With a bet on basketball, it creates a more balanced betting situation between the favorites and the underdogs. It means bettors can wager on either team with equal interest. 


There are two betting options in point spread betting. You either choose to wager on the favorite team or the underdog. If betting on the favorite, you’re hoping for them to win the game by the points over the specified number (the point spread). If you’re betting on the underdog, you’re hoping for one of two outcomes: either that they win or they lose by fewer points than the point spread.


How to read a point spread


You’ll see point spreads expressed like:


  • Team A -6
  • Team B +6


The negative (-6) means the team is the favorite. This means they have to win by more than that number of points to cover the spread. In this case, by 7 points.


The positive (+6) indicates the underdog. This means a winning bet on them would require that they either lose by fewer points than the spread or win outright. 


For example:


Celtics -6 vs. Hawks +6


This means the Celtics need to win by 7 or more points. The Hawks can win the game or lose by 5 points or fewer.


If the favorites win by the point spread exactly — in our example, the Celtics would win by 6 — this is called a “push”. Usually, this would result in a bet refund.


How are point spreads set?


Point spreads are calculated based on a range of factors, including:


  • Team performance metrics: Point spreads are set based on an analysis of the teams’ statistics, including defensive information as well as offensive. Both strengths and weaknesses are important for the calculation.
  • Previous head-to-heads: Past game results help set the point spread and decide the favorite. 
  • Injuries and rosters: Roster changes and injuries can affect how a team plays, so this information is taken into account when the point spreads are set. For instance, Cole Swider’s recent signing to the Indiana Pacers suggests increased roster competition, which could alter the point spread.
  • Home advantage: The team playing on their home turf has a slight advantage. 
  • Public perception: If the public is betting more favorably for one team, the bookmaker may adjust the point spreads.
  • Line movement: When there’s a larger number of bets being placed one way or another, or if key information changes about the teams and players, you can expect point spreads to shift.
  • Betting volume: If bookmakers notice higher betting for one team over another, they will typically adjust the spread.


Common misconceptions about point spreads

There are several misconceptions to bear in mind when betting on point spreads. Firstly, don’t believe that the favored team will always win. Underdogs can and do outperform expectations. This also means that point spreads don’t guarantee a specific outcome. In reality, they are predictions and not certainties.


Another common misconception among betters is the confusion that point spread betting is the same as moneyline betting. Winning against the spread is different because it requires you to consider other factors aside from winning and losing. 


Equally important is that there are no safe bets — even with popular or “public” teams. For example, you might see an article stating that “everybody should be terrified of the Celtics”, but this doesn’t mean this team isn’t overvalued. So, if you’re betting against the spread, you need to evaluate their actual performances critically.


As mentioned, you may see line movement. Don’t be fooled into thinking that sudden shifts in point spreads reflect team confidence. This might simply be due to public betting behavior or injuries to a team. Finally, point spreads can and do change leading up to the game and are not set in stone.


Conclusion


Understanding point spreads means you can bet more effectively on the NBA. When you understand this concept and know how they’re set and how to read them, you can make better decisions. In addition to understanding the general idea of point spread betting on the NBA, you also need to recognize common misconceptions as these could lead to costly betting mistakes. 


Ultimately, taking a well-rounded approach based on thorough research will mean you can navigate NBA betting with confidence. Be aware of team dynamics and line movement and you’ll be in a good position to make a more accurate bet.