2021 NBA Finals, Round 1: Old-School, New-School, 3>2

Through the first 36 minutes of their pleasant little Thursday night run at the fancy gym in Arizona, the last two NBA teams-left-standing had compiled a combined 142 “possessions,” 71 apiece.

One squad had 29 successful FG attempts, augmented by 10 other offensive forays that ended with a trip to the foul line – 39 conversions in 71 tries (.549 CV%); the other guys had five more “makes” but only two “FT conversions” – 36-for-71 overall (.507 CV%).

While the more efficient team earned only one subsequent FT conversion, they did tack on 13 more Q4 connects from the field … 53 conversions in 94 possessions (.564); the opposition’s 13 Q4 conversions (four at the FT line) upped their game-slate to 49-for-93 (.527).

Unfortunately for Mike Budenholzer’s Bull’s-eye Boys, the Suns’ paltry 53% rate of conversion produced 118 points (1.27 points-per-possession/2.41 points-per-conversion) – Milwaukee’s more impressive CV% gave them but 1.15 PPP/2.04 PPC, just 108 total points, and a second consecutive road loss to open the 2021 NBA Finals.

So, how does an anomaly such as this come to pass?

Let’s take a closer look at the data through Q3, the teams’ initial 71 possessions. The rim-attacking Bucks had taken 35 of their 72 shots “in the Paint” while Phoenix launched 33 of their 70 FGA’s from “beyond the arc” – on those specific shots, each team connected at a rate of 49% … but Milwaukee’s 17 hoops were worth just 34 points, while the Suns’ 16 treys converted to 48.

And that’s how a team that is winning the CV% battle 55-50 finds itself in an uncomfortable 10-point hole through 36 minutes of play.



Live by the Three-ball?

During the 2020-21 regular season’s 1,080 games, the competing teams made the same number of three-point shots on only 72 occasions … in the other 1,008 games, the team that was successful on more three-pointers won 689 times, a near 70% winning percentage.

Over the last nine NBA playoffs (2012-2020), an edge in successful three-point shots has produced a record of 351-179-54 (.662). Here’s the season-by-season breakdown:

2012: 45-31-8 (.592)
2013: 41-29-15 (.586)
2014: 48-36-5 (.571)
2015: 58-18-5 (.763)
2016: 55-28-3 (.663)
2017: 50-21-8 (.704)
2018: 50-18-14 (.735)
2019: 49-29-4 (.628)
2020: 50-25-8 (.667)

Through three rounds and 79 games of the 2021 Championship Tournament, the superior long-distance shooters have gone 46-27-6 (.630).