Celtics cash in on Mavs’ home-court struggles

Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports
Rick Carlisle’s Dallas Mavericks just might be this season’s biggest NBA enigma. The Tall Texans have Euro-stepped their way into the upper echelon of the Western Conference despite losing nearly half (7 of 15) of their home games to date. They’ve found their groove on the road, though, losing only twice in a dozen outings.

Wednesday night’s Texas “Tilt” contained its serving of the numerically improbable. For instance, Dallas managed to post four more Second-Chance points (12-8) than the Celtics despite posting eight fewer (when we add in Team Rebounds) O-boards.

We can even credit the Stevens Swifties for some improbable efficiency in the matter of converting opponent miscues – the Celts scored 14 points off only eight Dallas Turnovers, while yielding a mere 13 points off their own 16 official screw-ups.

Statistical Query

Seth Curry was charged with a (perhaps questionable) “clear-path” foul as Q2 was winding down. (Kudos to Jaylen Brown for coolly knocking down four free throws in three seconds!!)

Super Soph Luka Doncic got flagged for a Q4 flagrant foul during the teams’ first encounter.

AP Photo/Sam Hodde
Since such infractions are penalized doubly (i.e. foul shots plus possession of the ball), should not the player who commits such a foul be additionally charged with a Turnover to officially account for his team’s lost opportunity to score?

Game 25 at Dallas

Boston 109
FG: C’s – 35-86, .407
3FG: C’s – 12-38, .316
FT: C’s – 27-30, .900 [13 conversions]
TS%: C’s – .549
OR: C’s –14 + 4 (team) [minus 0 FT rebounds]
DR: C’s – 40 + 5 (team) [minus 2 FT rebounds]
TO: C’s – 15 + 1 (team)
Poss: C’s – 97 {49 “Empty”}
PPP: C’s – 1.124
CV%: C’s – 48 / 97, .495
Stripes: C’s – 9 [4.5 conversions]
Adjusted CV%: C’s – 52.5 / 97, .541 {expected production, 105 points}

Dallas 103

FG: Dal – 34-87, .391
3FG: Dal – 15-43, .349
FT: Dal – 20-25, .800 [12 conversions]
TS%: Dal – .526
OR: Dal – 10 + 0 (team) [minus 0 FT rebounds]
DR: Dal – 32 + 2 (team) [minus 1 FT rebound]
TO: Dal – 7 + 1 (team)
Poss: Dal – 97 {51 “Empty”}
PPP: Dal – 1.062
CV%: Dal – 46 / 97, .474
Stripes: Dal – 10 [5 conversions]
Adjusted CV%: Dal – 51 / 97, .526 {expected production, 102 points}

Note re Calculation & Notation:

The number of “possessions” is an accurate count, not a formula-based estimated value. For purposes of clarity, the bracketed digit following the FT% is the exact count of “conversions” represented by those FTA’s.

“Possessions” calculation: FGA’s + FT conversions + TO’s – OR’s (including Team OR’s) – FT OR’s

“Conversions” calculation: FG’s + FT conversions

“Stripes” calculation: 3FG’s – missed FTA’s

TS% = True Shooting Percentage

PPP = Points per Possession

CV% = Conversion Percentage

Abacus Revelation for the Road

Here’s a scary thought for an old-schooler.

This was the season’s 71st game (out of 415) in which both sides posted a 3PAr of .400 or more – so in one of every six NBA games, two of every five shots from the field is a trey. Both Celtic-Mav encounters made the list.

It sure did seem as if every Dallas penetration to the paint was producing a kick-out to the three-point line – the Association’s “back door” seems a bit dusty these days, eh?

In this year’s season series, these two teams combined for 147 successful FG’s while attempting 158 3FG’s out of 348 total shots.