First Week Celtic Assessment: Coping with High Expectation

Among the 10 team members who attempted more than two shots in the first four games, Marcus Morris has been the Boston Celtics’ most accurate FG shooter (.472) – third in points scored (47), as well as rebounds per game (6.3). That’s higher than any seasonal rebounding average he’s ever posted.

The Mook’s are certainly not the only unanticipated “numbers” in a disappointingly mundane 2 – 2 opening week from a team that’s inspired much greater expectation than mediocrity – but, alas, there’s a fair bit of “tit-for-tat” in this early data. Take a look at the generic numbers first (via bask-ref).

The Celtics have converted 180 of their 398 total possessions (.452), the opposition 185 successes in 400 tries (.463). The C’s 66 free-throw attempts represent 28 of those conversion, while their foes have amassed 34 “scratches” via the charity stripe (79 FTA’s).

Conversions (FG’s + FT’s) 
Boston                                    Opponent

Q1 41 Conv’s [36 + 5]                  42 Conv’s [34 + 8]
Q2 44 Conv’s [41 + 3]                  43 Conv’s [41 + 2]
Q3 50 Conv’s [40 + 10]                51 Conv’s [40 + 11]
Q4 45 Conv’s [35 + 10]                49 Conv’s [36 + 13]
Tot 180 Conv’s [152 + 28]            185 Conv’s [151 + 34]

The bad guys have been shooting themselves in the foot at foul line, minimizing the value of their 40 treys with 27 errant freebies – garnering but 13 points through “Striping” while Boston has earned 29 “Stripes” (43 3FG’s minus only 14 missed FT’s).

A 16-point advantage in Stripes against a 5-conversion disadvantage creates an expected six-point lead in overall scoring. Current season score: Boston 399, Opp. 394.

Hustle Points

Although they ranked No. 18 in Offensive Rebounding Percentage (.215) last season, the Celtics have been efficiently banging the offensive glass so far – holding a 54 – 38 advantage in “Follow-up Points.”

Off. Reb.’s (points produced)
Boston                                           Opponent

Q1 9 OR’s + 1 team [+10 points]               9 OR’s + 1 team [+7 points]
Q2 12 OR’s + 1 team [+16 points]          12 OR’s + 5 team [+11 points]
Q3 14 OR’s + 1 team [+15 points]             5 OR’s + 3 team [+5 points]
Q4 13 OR’s + 5 team [+10 points]         11 OR’s + 2 team [+15 points]
Tot 48 OR’s + 8 team [+51 points]          37 OR’s + 11 team [+38 points]

As for points on the possession following a Turnover, it’s all deadlocked at 49 points … but check out what’s been happening in Q2. Though the beneficiaries of 13 Boston miscues, opponents have managed to score only four points on the subsequent possessions. On the other hand, the C’s pesky defense produced 20 of their 98 second-quarter points by forcing 16 TO’s.

Unfortunately, those Points-off-TO’s numbers get flip-flopped in Q4. Here’s the quarterly breakdown:

TO’s (points yielded)
Boston                           Opponent

Q1 19 TO’s [-15 points]             17 TO’s [-13 points]
Q2 13 TO’s [-4 points]               16 TO’s [-20 points]
Q3 13 TO’s [-12 points]             14 TO’s [-11 points]
Q4 13 TO’s [-18 points]                7 TO’s [-5 points]
Tot 58 TO’s [-49 points]             54 TO’s [-49 points]

It’s a Make or Miss League, Baby

As impressive as the Q2 guys appear to be in the transition game, they’ve dropped the ball – or simply not chased it well enough – in allowing opponents a gaudy .412 rate from Three-point Land (14 – 34).

Now, in Q’s 1, 3 and 4, the bad guys have shot a morbid 26 for 97 from distance, and Coach Stevens scrappers remain among the NBA’s best (No. 5) in that component of Team D.

It’s at the other end of the court where our boys seem, shall we say, still stuck in Q4 of Game 7.

In their four Second Halves of play, the Boston Celtics have shot .270 (20 - 74) on treys, while launching over 40 percent (74 -181) of their FG’s from that range.

And didn’t Kevin McHale call them out on their Q1 shot selection during Monday’s loss?

Work Smarter, Not Harder

On three separate occasions during this season’s 12 quarters of play (Q3 at NY, Q4 at Tor, Q4 vs. Orl), the Celtics have induced four opponent Team Fouls in fewer than four minutes.

They made the Knicks pay for their malfeasance, but let the other guys off the hook – losing a ballgame in the process each time.


Abacus Revelation for the Road

“Losing is a part of success if it is coached properly.” – George Karl