Jayson Tatum ranked #5 in the league for 7 year ceiling
Every year, the website FiveThirtyEight gives their NBA player projections before the new season in a system they title "CARMELO."
The NBA player projection system forecasts the upcoming season and seasons beyond. The algorithm in which the system is based off compares current players to past ones who have statistically similar profiles.
In this year's article, written by Nate Silver, the FiveThirtyEight team put together a full summary of the 2018-19 season with long-term projections on the 600 players in their system.
The system compares how all of these players match up with each other across several metrics, including a 7-year upside (for more details on how that metric is calculated, read the full article here).
Upon scrolling down the list of superstars and All-Stars, Boston Celtics fans may find something interesting on this list. Rookie Jayson Tatum is ranked fifth out of all players in the NBA for 7-year upside according to this model.
On this list he trails only this years Rookie of the Year winner Ben Simmons, MVP winners Russell Westbrook and James Harden, as well as Giannis Antetokounmpo. It should be known that this does not mean that Tatum will be as good as these superstars, but they do use every analytic available to them to make these kind of predictions.
Tatum was nothing short of spectacular for Boston in his rookie year. He finished third in the Rookie of the Year voting, averaged 14 points per game and 6 rebounds during the regular season and was the teams leading scorer during their playoff run averaging 18.5 points per game. He also finished just one point short of Kareem Abdul Jabbar's record for most points by a rookie in the playoffs with 351.
Celtics fans are hoping that this model will confirm their hopes that Tatum is going to be a special player for a long time in this league.