The Algebra of the Game: C’s second quarter surge strangles Sacramento
Before we get too far ahead of ourselves here, let’s recognize that, for the second game in a row, our young and energetic thoroughbreds were facing a tired-legged team on its home court.
Nonetheless, there was a lot to like about the man-handling Stevens’s Assassins put on the Sacramento Kings last night on their way to a sixth straight victory. For example, Second Quarters had been troubling: .390 FG shooting, 30 TO’s, .430 Conversion rate – all team “worsts”; our boys were outscored 167-157 in seven second sessions, the only quarterly report in the red.
Well, the C’s balanced the point column by converting at a 65% rate – 13 tallies in 20 possessions – against the weary Kings, who managed to hit but 35% of their Q2 + Q3 FG’s. Early in the second, the Boston defense produced five consecutive “stops” while they were in the midst of converting 10 of 12 possessions. From there, the lead would never slip below ten.
Conversion Rate & Points per Possession
This is the third game this season in which the Celtics have converted over half their possessions, and their .544 Conversion Percentage a season best. In addition, a season-high 17 treys compared to just three missed FT’s adds 14 more points – or the equivalent of seven more conversions.
Adding in those seven extra conversions to the 49 earned from “Flow” yields an Adjusted Conversion rate of .622. If we double this rate to 1.244, we should be computing the team’s point production per possession, right?
Boston scored 113 points in 90 possessions, or 1.256 PPP.
Note re Calculations:
The number of “possessions” is an accurate count, not a formula-based estimated value.
For purposes of clarity, the bracketed digit following the FT% is the exact count of “conversions” represented by those FTA’s.
“Possessions” calculation: FGA’s + FT conversions + TO’s – OR’s (including Team OR’s)
“Conversions” calculation: FG’s + FT conversions
Abacus Revelation for the Road
Through and including Monday’s slate of tip-offs, 31 of the NBA’s first 105 games featured at least one team playing for a second consecutive night – in four of those games, both teams were back-to-backing.
In the 31 games that featured tired legs competing against fresh legs, the less-rested team is 9 – 18, .333. The defeats include the Celts’ home opener.