The Algebra of the Game: C’s defy the experts, derail hi-scorin’ Dubs
Coming out of halftime in a five-point game, TNT graphics were all set to go with evidence aplenty of GSW’s Q3 dominance during the seven-game winning streak they’d carried into Thursday night’s tussle.
Wouldn't they have appeared more prescient if they’d focused on Boston’s exploits this season on the heels of a few moments of Coach Stevens’s erudition and inspiration?
In this season’s first 15 Third Quarters, the C’s outshot the opposition .472 to .393, made 51 treys and 76 FT’s (against 29 and 50, respectively) and converted 52% of their opportunities to score (vs. 42%). The tally was 415-323.
Summative Equation:
Bos – 43 Conversions + [2 “Stripes”] {7 treys “minus” 5 missed FT’s “equals” 2 stripes}
GS – 42 Conversions + [3 “Stripes”] {10 treys “minus” 7 missed FT’s “equals” 3 stripes}
Expected Outcome -- +1 Conversion + [-1 Stripe] = C’s win by 1 point
Actual Score: Boston 92, Golden State 88
Before last night’s game, the Celtics’ longest string of consecutive converted possessions had been seven-in-a-row against OKC; their best stretch of “stops” was also seven, against the Kings. Both standards were set in Q3.
Just after the Warriors posted their largest lead of the game in Q3, the Boston defense not only shut down GSW for nine consecutive possessions, they followed each stop with a conversion (five FG’s and four trips to the foul line). A 17-point deficit had been “converted” into a two-point advantage.
Summative Equation (Season-to-date):
Bos – 748 Conversions + [+82 “Stripes”] {168 treys “minus” 86 missed FT’s “equals” 82 stripes}
Opp – 699 Conversions + [+50 “Stripes”] {136 treys “minus” 86 missed FT’s “equals” 50 stripes}
Expected Outcome -- +49 Conversions + [+32 Stripes] = C’s win by (98 + 32) 130 points
Actual Score: Boston 1632, Opponents 1506
Though he posted the squad’s worst +/- score, Coach Stevens must have been pleased with Jayson Tatum’s solid second half minutes and poise at the foul line.
In the early-going, the young prodigy was uncharacteristically acting his age. It was good to see Coach let him play through his apparent jitters.
The Algebra of the Game
FG: C’s – 8-25, .320 / GS – 10-24, .417
3FG: C’s – 2-10, .200 / GS – 4-10, .400
FT: C’s – 0-0, .000 [0] / GS – 4-6, .667 [3]
TO: C’s – 4 / GS – 2
OR: C’s – 1 + 1 (team) / GS – 3 + 0 (team)
Poss: C’s – 27 / GS – 26
CV%: C’s – 8 / 27, .296 / GS – 13 / 26, .500
2nd Quarter
FG: C’s – 5-18, .278 / GS – 8-20, .400
3FG: C’s – 2-9, .222 / GS – 0-4, .000
FT: C’s – 12-13, .923 [6] / GS – 3-5, .600 [2]
TO: C’s – 5 / GS – 4
OR: C’s – 3 + 1 (team) / GS – 1 + 0 (team)
Poss: C’s – 25 / GS – 25
CV%: C’s – 11 / 25, .440 / GS – 10 / 25, .400
3rd Quarter
FG: C’s – 7-17, .438 / GS – 8-17, .471
3FG: C’s – 3-7, .429 / GS – 3-6, .500
FT: C’s – 9-13, .692 [6] / GS – 2-2, 1.000 [1]
TO: C’s – 5 / GS – 7
OR: C’s – 1 + 1 (team) / GS – 0 + 0 (team)
Poss: C’s – 25 / GS – 25
CV%: C’s – 13 / 25, .520 / GS – 9 / 25, .360
FG: C’s – 6-20, .300 / GS – 7-21, .333
3FG: C’s – 0-5, .000 / GS – 3-12, .250
FT: C’s – 12-12, 1.000 [5] / GS – 3-6, .500 [3]
TO: C’s – 1 / GS – 2
OR: C’s – 2 + 1 (team) / GS – 3 + 0 (team)
Poss: C’s – 23 / GS – 23
CV%: C’s – 11 / 23, .477 / GS – 10 / 23, .435
Full Game
FG: C’s – 26-79, .329 / GS – 33-82, .402
3FG: C’s – 7-32, .219 / GS – 10-32, .313
FT: C’s – 33-38, .868 [17] / GS – 12-19, .632 [9]
TO: C’s – 15 / GS – 15
OR: C’s – 7 + 4 (team) / GS – 7 + 0 (team)
Poss: C’s – 100 / GS – 99
CV%: C’s – 43 / 100, .430 / GS – 42 / 99, .424
Note re Calculations:
The number of “possessions” is an accurate count, not a formula-based estimated value.
For purposes of clarity, the bracketed digit following the FT% is the exact count of “conversions” represented by those FTA’s.
“Possessions” calculation: FGA’s + FT conversions + TO’s – OR’s (including Team OR’s)
“Conversions” calculation: FG’s + FT conversions
Abacus Revelation for the Road
With 3:27 left in the first half, Draymond Green rebounded an errant Steph Curry jump shot. With 2:01 left in the game, Kevin Durant ran down his own missed three-pointer.
During the intervening 25:26 – which included 20 missed FG’s and two “live” missed FT’s among the Warriors’ 50 offensive possessions – Golden State was shut out on the offensive glass.
