The Algebra of a Tough Defeat: Freak “tips” the balance in the end

During Sunday’s Game 4 at Milwaukee’s Bradley Center, the Bucks were off-target on 35 of their 78 Field Goal attempts.

By contrast, the struggling Boston shooters misfired on 51 FGA’s – but the C’s were able to retain possession of the ball following 18 of those bricks, recording 17 points in the process.

Brad Stevens’s scrappy troops also acquired possession of 31 of those 35 Milwaukee misses. One of the other four was swatted out of bounds by Al Horford, accounting for a Buck team rebound; another ended Q3. The other two – on Milwaukee’s 3rd & 91st (and final) possessions – were snared by Giannis Antetokounmpo.

How ironic that the game-winning – and series-evening – hoop was scored on the Bucks’ one and only genuine put-back in 48 minutes of play.


Summative Equation:

Bos – 48 Conversions + [+5 “Stripes”] {10 treys “minus” 5 missed FT’s “equals” 5 stripes}
Mil – 49 Conversions + [+4 “Stripes”] {10 treys “minus” 6 missed FT’s “equals” 4 stripes}
Expected Outcome -- -1 Conversion + [+1 Stripes] = C’s lose by 1 point
Actual Score: Boston 102, Milwaukee 104


The Algebra of the Game

1st Quarter
FG: C’s – 7 - 24, .292 / Mil – 10 - 22, .455
3FG: C’s – 1 - 5, .200 / Mil – 1 - 6, .167
FT: C’s – 2 - 4, .500 [2] / Mil – 3 - 4, .750 [2]
TO: C’s – 4 / Mil – 1
OR: C’s – 7 + 0 (team) / Mil – 1 + 1 (team)
Poss: C’s – 23 / Mil – 23
CV%: C’s – 9 / 23, .391 / Mil – 12 / 23, .522


For Games 3 & 4, the C’s shot 11-for-44 from the field, converting just 16 of 47 possessions during the first 12 minutes.


2nd Quarter
FG: C’s – 6 - 19, .316 / Mil – 9 - 18, .500
3FG: C’s – 1 - 5, .200 / Mil – 4 - 7, .571
FT: C’s – 5 - 8, .625 [4] / Mil – 5 - 8, .625 [4]
TO: C’s – 2 / Mil – 3
OR: C’s – 1 + 0 (team) / Mil – 0 + 0 (team)
Poss: C’s – 24 / Mil – 25
CV%: C’s – 10 / 24, .417 / Mil – 13 / 25, .520


It’s kinda amazing that Milwaukee converted over half their possessions in both Q2 & Q3 while compiling more turnovers than the other guys and getting no second chances.


3rd Quarter
FG: C’s – 11 - 20, .550 / Mil – 9 - 17, .529
3FG: C’s – 2 - 9, .222 / Mil – 1 - 5, .200
FT: C’s – 8 - 8, 1.000 [4] / Mil – 5 - 5, 1.000 [2]
TO: C’s – 1 / Mil – 3
OR: C’s – 3 + 1 (team) / Mil – 0 + 0 (team)
Poss: C’s – 21 / Mil – 22
CV%: C’s – 15 / 21, .714 / Mil – 11 / 22, .500


Encouragingly, Boston was perfect from the free-throw line during Game 4’s second half while committing just three Turnovers.


4th Quarter
FG: C’s – 12 - 24, .500 / Mil – 10 - 16, .625
3FG: C’s – 6 - 10, .600 / Mil – 4 - 5, .800
FT: C’s – 5 - 5, 1.000 [2] / Mil – 5 - 7, .714 [3]
TO: C’s – 2 / Mil – 3
OR: C’s – 5 + 1 (team) / Mil – 1 + 0 (team)
Poss: C’s – 22 / Mil – 21
CV%: C’s – 14 / 22, .636 / Mil – 13 / 21, .619


The Bucks, who made fewer than nine three-pointers per game during the regular season and shot .355, connected on 11 of 18 Q4 treys (.611) this weekend.

Live by the … well, you know!


Full Game
FG: C’s – 36 - 87, .414 / Mil – 38 - 73, .521
3FG: C’s – 10 - 29, .345 / Mil – 10 - 23, .435
FT: C’s – 20 - 25, .800 [12] / Mil – 18 - 24, .750 [11]
TO: C’s – 9 / Mil – 10
OR: C’s – 16 + 2 (team) / Mil – 2 + 1 (team)
Poss: C’s – 90 / Mil – 91
CV%: C’s – 48 / 90, .533 / Mil – 49 / 91, .538


Note re Calculations:
The number of “possessions” is an accurate count, not a formula-based estimated value.

For purposes of clarity, the bracketed digit following the FT% is the exact count of “conversions” represented by those FTA’s.

“Possessions” calculation: FGA’s + FT conversions + TO’s – OR’s (including Team OR’s)

“Conversions” calculation: FG’s + FT conversions


Abacus Revelation for the Road

Quite a roll AD and his Pelicans have gotten themselves on, huh?

Jrue Holiday’s strong supporting performance in their close-out game was quite impressive.

Ain’t it curious how so many guys who were deemed “Process Inappropriate” for the 76ers shameful tanking spree are still flourishing in the Association!!

Holiday, Lou Williams, Evan Turner, Thaddeus Young, Jodie Meeks (sorta) … oh, and some dude who can claim a Finals MVP. They were all on the squad that shockingly took KG, PP and them to seven games – which was six whole years ago.

Just sayin’.


images: getty, nba.com, nashua telegraph