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The 40 – 19 Boston Celtics have registered more “conversions” than the other guys in only 35 of their ballgames heading into this season’s All-Star Sabbatical – Holy Acronym, Batman. One of those “advantage” games was their streak-breaking loss at Miami on Thanksgiving Eve. (Brad’s boys did emerge victorious in the other 34.)

The C’s have been “out-converted” 23 times, stealing away with a win in five of these contests. Phoenix matched Boston’s 52 successful possessions in an early December Garden loss to the men in Green.

Interesting that, for all the frenzy generated by three-point shooting in today’s NBA, nearly 90% of the Celtics’ “basketball battles” (as a dude named Most used to call them) this season have been won by the team that controlled the back-and-forth “Flow” of the game, huh?


Quarterly Reports

The last time the Celtics won the Q1 conversion battle was nearly three weeks ago in Denver – the subsequent eight Q1’s have produced two draws and six deficits. By contrast, the team held a conversion edge after 12 minutes in 10 of its first 14 games.

Through 59 First Quarters, Boston has been a .500 team in the matter of stops & conversions – here’s the breakdown for each period of play:

Q1: 26 “wins” – 26 “losses” – 7 “ties”
Q2: 23 “wins” – 31 “losses” – 5 “ties”
Q3: 31 “wins” – 25 “losses” – 3 “ties”
Q4: 35 “wins” – 22 “losses” – 2 “ties”
OT: 2 “wins” – 1 “loss” – 0 “ties”


Some Sundry Data

Despite all this season’s opportunistic performances, the Stevens Crew has been out-performed by its foes in both “Follow-up Points” (703 – 660) and “Points After Turnovers” (906 – 875).

Should we be concerned that, over the last 34 games, the opposition is +80 in “Free Throw Conversions”? The men in Green had been +44 in that category over the first 25 games.

And for what it’s worth, the bad guys have won 36 of 59 opening tip-offs – two out of three in OT, as well. On the other hand, the Celts have managed time at the close of quarters well enough to hold a 5,654 – 5,645 edge in total possessions.


Summative Equation (Season-to-date):

Bos – 2,756 Conversions + [+405 “Stripes”] {686 treys “minus” 281 missed FT’s “equals” 405 stripes}
Opp – 2,723 Conversions + [+237 “Stripes”] {538 treys “minus” 301 missed FT’s “equals” 237 stripes}
Expected Outcome -- +33 Conversions + [+168 Stripes] = C’s win by (66 + 168) 234 points
Actual Score: Boston 6,085, Opponents 5879


The Algebra of the “Average” Celtic Game

Note re Calculations:
The number of “possessions” is an accurate count, not a formula-based estimated value.

For purposes of clarity, the bracketed digit following the FT% is the exact count of “conversions” represented by those FTA’s.

“Possessions” calculation: FGA’s + FT conversions + TO’s – OR’s (including Team OR’s)

“Conversions” calculation: FG’s + FT conversions


1st Quarter
Points: C’s – 25.75 / Opp – 24.90
FG: C’s – 10.2 – 22.1, .460 / Opp – 9.5 – 21.8, .438
3FG: C’s – 2.85 – 7.51, .379 / Opp – 2.14 – 6.24, .342
FT: C’s – 2.53 – 3.27, 1.000 [1.4] / Opp – 3.68 – 4.78, .500 [2.0]
TO: C’s – 3.27 / Opp – 3.41
OR: C’s – 2.00 + 0.73 (team) / Opp – 2.41 + 0.66 (team)
Poss: C’s – 24.0 / Opp – 24.2
CV%: C’s – 11.5 / 24.0, .481 / Opp – 11.6 / 24.2, .479

2nd Quarter
Points: C’s – 24.10 / Opp – 25.54
FG: C’s – 8.8 – 21.5, .410 / Opp – 9.5 – 21.2, .449
3FG: C’s – 2.95 – 8.53, .346 / Opp – 2.39 – 6.49, .368
FT: C’s – 3.49 – 4.80, .333 [2.0] / Opp – 4.10 – 5.29, .750 [2.3]
TO: C’s – 3.92 / Opp – 3.69
OR: C’s – 2.63 + 0.61 (team) / Opp – 2.54 + 0.71 (team)
Poss: C’s – 24.2 / Opp – 23.9
CV%: C’s – 10.8 / 24.2, .447 / Opp – 11.8 / 23.9, .493

3rd Quarter
Points: C’s – 26.69 / Opp – 24.17
FG: C’s – 9.7 – 21.1, .457 / Opp – 8.9 – 20.8, .427
3FG: C’s – 3.07 – 7.41, .414 / Opp – 2.20 – 6.37, .346
FT: C’s – 4.31 – 5.49, 1.000 [2.4] / Opp – 4.24 – 5.47, 1.000 [2.3]
TO: C’s – 3.51 / Opp – 3.61
OR: C’s – 2.19 + 0.66 (team) / Opp – 1.97 + 0.75 (team)
Poss: C’s – 24.2 / Opp – 23.9
CV%: C’s – 12.0 / 24.2, .498 / Opp – 11.1 / 23.9, .466


4th Quarter
Points: C’s – 26.00 / Opp – 24.61
FG: C’s – 9.0 – 19.8, .456 / Opp – 8.7 – 20.4, .425
3FG: C’s – 2.73 – 7.76, .352 / Opp – 2.37 – 7.32, .324
FT: C’s – 5.20 – 6.66, 1.000 [3.0] / Opp – 4.92 – 6.47, .833 [2.8]
TO: C’s – 3.07 / Opp – 3.44
OR: C’s – 2.34 + 0.53 (team) / Opp – 2.76 + 0.64 (team)
Poss: C’s – 23.0 / Opp – 23.2
CV%: C’s – 12.0 / 23.0, .523 / Opp – 11.4 / 23.2, .494

Overtime
Points: C’s – 11.67 / Opp – 8.00
FG: C’s – 4.0 – 8.3, .480 / Opp – 3.3 – 10.7, .313
3FG: C’s – 0.67 – 2.67, .250 / Opp – 0.00 – 3.33, .000
FT: C’s – 3.00 – 4.00, .800 [1.7] / Opp – 1.33 – 1.67, 1.000 [0.7]
TO: C’s – 0.67 / Opp – 1.00
OR: C’s – 0.33 + 0.67 (team) / Opp – 2.33 + 0.00 (team)
Poss: C’s – 9.7 / Opp – 10.0
CV%: C’s – 5.7 / 9.7, .586 / Opp – 4.0 / 10.0, .400

Full Game
Points: C’s – 103.14 / Opp – 99.66
FG: C’s – 37.9 – 85.0, .446 / Opp – 36.8 – 84.7, .434
3FG: C’s – 11.63 – 31.37, .371 / Opp – 9.12 – 26.63, .342
FT: C’s – 15.68 – 20.44, .808 [8.8] / Opp – 17.00 – 22.10, .800 [9.4]
TO: C’s – 13.86 / Opp – 14.19
OR: C’s – 9.17 + 2.56 (team) / Opp – 9.80 + 2.68 (team)
Poss: C’s – 95.9 / Opp – 95.7
CV%: C’s – 46.7 / 95.9, .487 / Opp – 46.2 / 95.7, .482


Abacus Revelation for the Road

In an average second-half this season, the Celtics have outscored their opponents by about four points. Q2 has been their Achilles heel.

And don’t skip over that Q3 3FG% -- rather impressive.


Images: nbcsports.com; bostonherald.com; nba.com; turnto10.com

Abacus Reveals 2/20/2018 01:13:00 PM Edit
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