What the "All-In/Close the deal" people are missing concerning the failed Giannis trade

A strong majority of NBA fans extremely undervalue future first round picks... until of course they are selected and start playing for their favorite teams. NBA front offices on the other hand value future first round picks about as high as one can love the mystery future.

Future first rounders take up no cap space and are your best vehicle to use to obtain a star player either via trade or more likely in the NBA Draft. And not only can you draft a star, but they have their whole futures ahead of them and are locked in on team friendly contracts.

Yes you can always draft a bust, but better to have the potential to land a star or bust than no potential to add a star at all. So when evaluating a trade it's faulty to focus too heavily on the players trading places at the expense of weighing the first round picks.

Even Paul George's family would argue Antetokounmpo is a better player than he is now. That's a given. And Giannis would have been a better return over George, Hugo Gonzalez, and Baylor Scheierman. But those were never the two options.

While George is overpaid, the three year super max contract Boston was reportedly prepared to give Giannis had the potential to also turn into an albatross deal down the road. But let's forget about the Giannis extension and just focus on the significant pieces not being discussed. And those are the 4 to 6 first round picks that also need to be accounted for.

Long term for the Celtics, fans, and even Tatum would you rather have Giannis or George, Hugo, Baylor, Chris Cenac Jr, and 3 to 5 future first round picks? Put another way that's Giannis vs George plus 7 to 8 first rounders (accounting for Celtics draftees from 2024-2026 and future picks).

Yes George is a negative asset who the 76ers reportedly would have had to include a first rounder to dump. That's also why Brad Stevens and company were frightened to give Jaylen an additional $142 million this summer. If you thought the value the Celtics got back for Brown last Thursday was underwhelming, just imagine what the team would have to accept in a deal after that extension was added.

Correct me if I'm wrong if the 76ers give Jaylen that additional $142 million this summer, but I think it's safe to say Philadelphia would not have given up those two highly valuable first round picks if they were taking back the rick that came with Jaylen on a huge new five year contract.

Even if you aren't high on Hugo, Baylor, and Cenac Jr, the additional draft cost from upgrading from George to Giannis included a very valuable 2028 first round pick, an unprotected 2031 first round pick, and 1 to 3 future Celtics first rounders. If Giannis gets hurt, Boston would be royally screwed while Milwaukee could be snagging some could of been future Celtics great with Boston's pick(s).

There is a possibility that Stevens and the Celtics front office would have gone all-in on Antetokounmpo if they could read the future and see that not one of the other 29 NBA teams valued Jaylen Brown (with his contract) very high. I mean that's not an easy thing to predict and typically there is at least one general manager out there that is an outlier and/or you can finesse.

Hindsight isn't 20/20 though and if you hated the return that Boston received back from Philadelphia, in time you very likely may have despised what Boston gave up for with Jaylen for Giannis, just to "close the deal."

Hey maybe many won't? When Boston traded Isaiah Thomas for Kyrie Irving, Boston fans hated that deal and not even for the right reason. The reason why it was an extremely risky deal was that after landing Brown and Tatum in consecutive drafts with Brooklyn picks, Ainge was letting go of the last of those picks in the deal to Cleveland. The balls didn't land as top 3 pick, so we aren't talking now about the Celtics trading away the opportunity to draft Luka Doncic, but the pick was still a lottery pick.

Cleveland blew it by passing on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander for Collin Sexton, but the reality still is that Boston traded away the opportunity to pair Shai with the Jay's and all the other talent the team had back then.

Since Shai never suited up for Boston it's not viewed the same way trading Chauncey Billups or Joe Johnson were, but the point simply is that if you believe Jaylen Brown was worth much more than what the 76ers traded for him, you would have passed on that Milwaukee deal as well if you were an NBA GM.

The Celtics would be better off with Giannis than with George this coming season. If "closing the deal" meant giving up Brown, plus Hugo, Baylor (potentially Queta) plus 4 first round picks then there is a strong possibilty that Boston is in better shape for not closing that deal whatever it takes.

Closing a deal whatever it takes is what the Clippers did to acquire ironically George from Oklahoma City. How did that work out for them? The Thunder built their championship team around the player acquired in Shai plus the copious amount of picks the "all-in" Clippers gave in to close the deal.

Seven years later and the Clippers haven't won anything and are starting over again. They actually had quite the promising future coming off a strong season with a young group when they made their all-in/close the deal move.

No one should argue the Celtics return for Jaylen was some sell high great value, but how far Stevens could have gone all-in to close the Giannis deal could have left the team's fortunes considerably worse.


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