Numbers for thought: What to make of Jae Crowder
Numbers for thought is a series that selects certain pieces of statistics before each game (or let's say every now and then to make this a more attainable goal) that may or may not be meaningful (you know, small sample size, outliers or whatever) but nonetheless provide entertainment value (or so I hope).
Well, thanks to trader Danny's recent busy days, it has been quite an arduous task to find a coherent set of statistics on the Celtics' performance, but now that the dust has probably settled, it will be possible to resume this series again. What better way to do that than to scrutinize Jae Crowder's days as a Celtic in light of his performance last night, right?
Jae Crowder has always been regarded as a not-quite-athletic, not-desirably-efficient "3 and D" kinda player. In his two seasons in the league, he has not once passed the 3-point shot average for the league, yet his tough defense has always been part of the limited praise he has received. However, as Crowder finds himself thrown into a starter role, he has the opportunity to prove that he can be an integral part of a team that has enough shot creators, shooters and inside players as versatile defenders who protect the wing are an important commodity in today's NBA.
When I was looking at Crowder's career stats and contemplating whether a limited offensive player like him can turn into a starter on a contender, one name kept popping up in my head: Metta World Peace Ron Artest Tooth Fairy Jesus. (Yeah, I know that's not "one" name strictly speaking) Of course that comparison has nothing to do about mental characteristics as Artest has time and again proven he's one crazy dude, but no one could deny that he was a good defensive player, and an above-average 3-point shooter in his later days. But his 3PT% averages for his first three seasons in the league? 31.4%, 29.2%, 31.2%. In his prime, Artest was shooting ~38% from beyond the arc. So yes, Crowder can indeed become a starter on a championship-caliber team if he can improve his shooting from beyond the arc.
Now what remains unanswered is whether increased playing time will mean improved stats for Crowder. In his 12 games donning the Celtic green, Crowder has shot significantly worse from downtown: His accuracy dipped to 25.9% from a career high 34.2% in his 25 games for the Mavericks. So that sounds like bad news, huh? Here's the catch though: His per 36 minutes stats besides 3-point shooting has improved drastically: He's grabbing 2 more rebounds, dishing 0.6 assists, getting 0.5 more steals and scoring 3.6 more points per 36 minutes here compared to his performance in Dallas this season. His stats are also better than his prior career average too.
Finally, let's look at his defense: While playing for Dallas (and mostly against bench players), Crowder has kept his matchups to FG% lower than their averages. He was definitely a shot altering defensive presence, yet that has not been the case for him in Boston presumably since he's now guarding more skilled players. On the other hand, his Defensive Rating in Dallas was 107.3, which has significantly improved to 100.4 in Boston. In short, the jury is still out on his effectiveness defensively, but his hustle and energy is nonetheless there. Here's his impressive block on Tyreke Evans in case you've missed it:
To summarize, Crowder's ceiling is not that high despite his impressive string of performances as a Celtic, yet if he continues his hustle and he can improve his offensive contribution a notch, he will be a quite serviceable and affordable small forward for the Celtics. Unless, of course, he's traded for a pick because it seems like Danny Ainge just cannot get enough of them.
Photo credit: CSNNE.
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For other "Numbers for thought" posts, click here.
For more of semioticus's articles, click here.
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Well, thanks to trader Danny's recent busy days, it has been quite an arduous task to find a coherent set of statistics on the Celtics' performance, but now that the dust has probably settled, it will be possible to resume this series again. What better way to do that than to scrutinize Jae Crowder's days as a Celtic in light of his performance last night, right?
Jae Crowder has always been regarded as a not-quite-athletic, not-desirably-efficient "3 and D" kinda player. In his two seasons in the league, he has not once passed the 3-point shot average for the league, yet his tough defense has always been part of the limited praise he has received. However, as Crowder finds himself thrown into a starter role, he has the opportunity to prove that he can be an integral part of a team that has enough shot creators, shooters and inside players as versatile defenders who protect the wing are an important commodity in today's NBA.
When I was looking at Crowder's career stats and contemplating whether a limited offensive player like him can turn into a starter on a contender, one name kept popping up in my head: Metta World Peace Ron Artest Tooth Fairy Jesus. (Yeah, I know that's not "one" name strictly speaking) Of course that comparison has nothing to do about mental characteristics as Artest has time and again proven he's one crazy dude, but no one could deny that he was a good defensive player, and an above-average 3-point shooter in his later days. But his 3PT% averages for his first three seasons in the league? 31.4%, 29.2%, 31.2%. In his prime, Artest was shooting ~38% from beyond the arc. So yes, Crowder can indeed become a starter on a championship-caliber team if he can improve his shooting from beyond the arc.
Now what remains unanswered is whether increased playing time will mean improved stats for Crowder. In his 12 games donning the Celtic green, Crowder has shot significantly worse from downtown: His accuracy dipped to 25.9% from a career high 34.2% in his 25 games for the Mavericks. So that sounds like bad news, huh? Here's the catch though: His per 36 minutes stats besides 3-point shooting has improved drastically: He's grabbing 2 more rebounds, dishing 0.6 assists, getting 0.5 more steals and scoring 3.6 more points per 36 minutes here compared to his performance in Dallas this season. His stats are also better than his prior career average too.
Finally, let's look at his defense: While playing for Dallas (and mostly against bench players), Crowder has kept his matchups to FG% lower than their averages. He was definitely a shot altering defensive presence, yet that has not been the case for him in Boston presumably since he's now guarding more skilled players. On the other hand, his Defensive Rating in Dallas was 107.3, which has significantly improved to 100.4 in Boston. In short, the jury is still out on his effectiveness defensively, but his hustle and energy is nonetheless there. Here's his impressive block on Tyreke Evans in case you've missed it:
To summarize, Crowder's ceiling is not that high despite his impressive string of performances as a Celtic, yet if he continues his hustle and he can improve his offensive contribution a notch, he will be a quite serviceable and affordable small forward for the Celtics. Unless, of course, he's traded for a pick because it seems like Danny Ainge just cannot get enough of them.
Photo credit: CSNNE.
-----------------------------
For other "Numbers for thought" posts, click here.
For more of semioticus's articles, click here.
To follow semioticus on Twitter, click here.
