NBA Week 2 in Proportion: A player’s greatest skill – Avail-Ability?

AP Photo/Michael Dwyer

From the time that a teenaged Jayson Tatum joined the organization, the Boston Celtics have played 197 regular season and playoff games – young Jayson has suited up for 192 of them, starting each and every time. I strongly suspect that’s a track record matched by few players in Celtic lore … the names that come to mind seem all to have a corresponding number in the rafters.

After a casually paced opening fortnight, Brad Stevens now has a more daunting “load” to manage, as his boys won’t experience back-to-back days of rest for four weeks.

Through a 4 – 1 start against some less-than-stellar competition, our C’s have had their struggles on the boards (Bottom Ten ranking at both ends of the floor). What’s encouraging is that Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Gordon Hayward have all statistically elevated their collective production on the defensive glass from last season by six or seven rebounds per game.

One would hope that full strength at the “five” will impact those ratings.

League-wide

Week 2’s 45 games produced only one overtime contest, after the five of Week 1 … that makes six through 96 games, exactly one out of six. (I wonder if that rate is the “norm”?)

Home-court advantage slipped to .556 from .608 during Days 8 – 14

Second-week shooting improved marginally: FG% (.443 to .456), 3FG% (.343 to .350), TS% (.548 to .557). Pace dropped by a couple of possessions a game to 102.1, and scoring slipped by half a point to 109.7.

Teams continue to snare about 46 rebounds per game, roughly 10 of them at the offensive end – turnovers declined by one per game per team (15.7).

The average team earns 5.94 “stripes” per game … but the team with more stripes stands 45 – 41 – 10. The team making more treys is 47 – 39 – 10, while the team that misses fewer free throws is 49 – 42 – 5.




Boston -220

FG: C’s – 74-166, .446
3FG: C’s – 28-75, .373
FT: C’s – 44-50, .880 [21 conversions]
TS%: C’s – .585
OR: C’s – 8 + 6 (team) [minus 1 FT rebound]
DR: C’s – 81 + 3 (team) [minus 8 FT rebounds]
TO: C’s – 23 + 1 (team)
Poss: C’s – 198 {103 “Empty”}
PPP: C’s – 1.111
CV%: C’s – 95 conversions / 198 possessions, .480
Stripes: C’s – +22 [+11 conversions]
Adjusted CV%: C’s – 106 conversions / 198, .535 {expected production, 212 points}


Opponent- 207

FG: Opp – 75-175, .429
3FG: Opp – 28-83, .337
FT: Opp – 29-45, .644 [17 conversions]
TS%: Opp – .531
OR: Opp – 21 + 3 (team) [minus 1 FT rebound]
DR: Opp – 75 + 4 (team) [minus 2 FT rebounds]
TO: Opp – 28 + 0 (team)
Poss: Opp – 197 {105 “Empty”}
PPP: Opp – 1.051
CV%: Opp – 92 conversions / 197 possessions, .467
Stripes: Opp – +12 [+6 conversions]
Adjusted CV%: Opp – 98 conversions / 197 possessions, .497 {expected production, 196 points}


Note re Calculation & Notation:

The number of “possessions” is an accurate count, not a formula-based estimated value. For purposes of clarity, the bracketed digit following the FT% is the exact count of “conversions” represented by those FTA’s.

“Possessions” calculation: FGA’s + FT conversions + TO’s – OR’s (including Team OR’s) – FT OR’s

“Conversions” calculation: FG’s + FT conversions

“Stripes” calculation: 3FG’s – missed FTA’s

TS% = True Shooting Percentage

PPP = Points per Possession

CV% = Conversion Percentage

Bob Levey/Getty Images

Abacus Revelation for the Road

In exactly half their games so far, Pop’s Spurs have faced an opponent playing the second night of a back-to-back – twice at home.

Here are my thoughts on that little component of NBA scheduling.