The Algebra of Savvy: Celts out-execute Sixers, take commanding lead
In the “process” – and for the first time in the Brad Stevens era – Boston has assumed firm control of a playoff series.
In 2017-18, the average NBA squad committed 14.3 turnovers per game, a TO% of .130. The C’s were charged with 14.0 TO’s a game, matching the league average in TO% for a ranking of No. 15.
The Sixers were a league-worst .146 in TO%, miscuing 16.5 times every game.
For the series, Philly has committed 39 TO’s (good for 52 points on the subsequent Boston possessions), while the C’s have racked up 32 (accounting for 49 points).
In the second half and OT of Game 3, the Sixers doubled Boston’s TO total, 10 – 5.
Summative Equation:
Bos – 48 Conversions + [+5 “Stripes”] {10 treys “minus” 5 missed FT’s “equals” 5 stripes}
Phil – 46 Conversions + [+4 “Stripes”] {9 treys “minus” 5 missed FT’s “equals” 4 stripes}
Expected Outcome -- +2 Conversions + [+1 Stripe] = C’s win by 5 points
Actual Score: Boston 101, Philadelphia 98
The Algebra of the Game
FG: C’s – 8 - 20, .400 / Phil – 9 - 26, .346
3FG: C’s – 2 - 10, .200 / Phil – 2 - 9, .222
FT: C’s – 1 - 2, .500 [1] / Phil – 0 - 0, .333 [0]
TO: C’s – 2 / Phil – 2
OR: C’s – 1 + 0 (team) / Phil – 5 + 1 (team)
Poss: C’s – 22 / Phil – 22
CV%: C’s – 9 / 22, .409 / Phil – 9 / 22, .409
Ten of the Sixers’ first 12 points were scored on shots attempted in the paint (the other was a Joel Embiid J from just outside the lane. But it took back-to-back treys in Q1’s final minute to wrest the lead from Boston.
Former Celtic Amir Johnson’s three Q1 minutes were his only participation in the game. Embiid logged 41 minutes for the night, and talked his way back into the line-up promptly when Coach Brett Brown wanted to rest him in the OT period.
2nd Quarter
FG: C’s – 11 - 22, .500 / Phil – 10 - 22, .455
3FG: C’s – 5 - 12, .417 / Phil – 6 – 10, .600
FT: C’s – 2 - 2, 1.000 [1] / Phil – 5 - 8, .625 [3]
TO: C’s – 6 / Phil – 3
OR: C’s – 3 + 0 (team) / Phil – 1 + 1 (team)
Poss: C’s – 26 / Phil – 26
CV%: C’s – 12 / 26, .462 / Phil – 13 / 26, .500
Boston assumed a 10-point lead at the midpoint of Q2, but went on to misfire on seven of their final 10 FG attempts.
3rd Quarter
FG: C’s – 9 - 21, .429 / Phil – 7 - 21, .333
3FG: C’s – 3 - 9, .333 / Phil – 0 - 6, .000
FT: C’s – 0 - 0, .000 [0] / Phil – 3 - 4, .750 [2]
TO: C’s – 4 / Phil – 5
OR: C’s – 2 + 0 (team) / Phil – 4 + 1 (team)
Poss: C’s – 23 / Phil – 23
CV%: C’s – 9 / 23, .391 / Phil – 9 / 23, .391
I don’t believe I ever noticed Brad Stevens cuss before – that choirboy look tempts one to suspect he doesn’t.
But during a late Q3 possession, Ersan Ilyasova deflected a pass intended for Marcus Morris out-of-bounds. Believing he was fouled, Morris pleaded his cast to the official – but for too long, apparently, in his coach’s opinion. Stevens could clearly be seen hollering “Morris” across the court, then muttering a “God damn!"
Brad might have been bemoaning Mook’s lost shooting touch (39% for the. Milwaukee series, 34% so far vs. Philly) … or is he growing weary of this player’s excessive (?) on-court contentiousness?
FG: C’s – 9 - 21, .429 / Phil – 8 - 17, .471
3FG: C’s – 0 - 7, .000 / Phil – 0 - 1, .000
FT: C’s – 2 - 4, .500 [2] / Phil – 5 - 6, .833 [3]
TO: C’s – 1 / Phil – 3
OR: C’s – 3 + 0 (team) / Phil – 1 + 0 (team)
Poss: C’s – 21 / Phil – 22
CV%: C’s – 11 / 21, .524 / Phil – 11 / 22, .500
Ominous opening to Q4. On the 76ers’ first two possessions, Aron Baynes picked up his fourth and fifth personal fouls. The big Aussie had just checked in to spell Al Horford.
Coach Stevens rolled the dice and stuck with Baynes for three more defensive stands. On the third, Embiid drew a shooting foul charged to Marcus Smart. (That seemed like a bullet-dodge – at least until Smart fouled out in the final minute of regulation.)
Stevens probably saved the game by calling a time-out with 26 seconds left in Q4, the C’s down by two points, the shot-clock at eight seconds and the ball in the hands of Morris (who would indeed jack up a brick just a split-second after the TO).
Rookie Jayson Tatum would execute Brad’s design expertly, lofting a gorgeous post entry pass to Jaylen Brown for a tying lay-up.
It required Marco Belinelli pulling a rabbit out of his hat to force OT.
Overtime
FG: C’s – 4 - 7, .571 / Phil – 4 - 11, .364
3FG: C’s – 0 - 0, .000 / Phil – 1 - 4, .250
FT: C’s – 4 - 6, .667 [3] / Phil – 0 - 0, .000 [2]
TO: C’s – 0 / Phil – 2
OR: C’s – 0 + 0 (team) / Phil – 2 + 0 (team)
Poss: C’s – 10 / Phil – 11
CV%: C’s – 7 / 10, .700 / Phil – 4 / 11, .364
Despite falling quickly behind by five points, notwithstanding dependable Al Horford clanking an FT in the final minute, Boston ultimately out-poised the home team.
Even Sixer Coach Brett Brown came across as indecisive. Perhaps channeling his inner-Process, Brown pulled Embiid (with only four fouls) at the 2:42 mark – but immediately caved in to Joel’s pleading by re-inserting him a mere nine seconds later.
Full Game
FG: C’s – 41 - 91, .451 / Phil – 38 - 97, .392
3FG: C’s – 10 - 38, .263 / Phil – 9 - 30, .300
FT: C’s – 9 - 14, .643 [7] / Phil – 13 - 18, .722 [8]
TO: C’s – 13 / Phil – 15
OR: C’s – 9 + 0 (team) / Phil – 13 + 3 (team)
Poss: C’s – 102 / Phil – 104
CV%: C’s – 48 / 102, .471 / Phil – 46 / 104, .442
Note re Calculations:
The number of “possessions” is an accurate count, not a formula-based estimated value.
For purposes of clarity, the bracketed digit following the FT% is the exact count of “conversions” represented by those FTA’s.
“Possessions” calculation: FGA’s + FT conversions + TO’s – OR’s (including Team OR’s)
“Conversions” calculation: FG’s + FT conversions
Abacus Revelation for the Road
While cooling his heels back in the locker room, Bill was following the national TV broadcast. In those days, live look-ins with a hand-held camera at a team’s strategy huddle during a time-out was one of the new wrinkles the league and networks were incorporating,
Never one to pass up any available edge, the wily Fitch started sending a head-up, via a ballboy, to the Boston bench with the gist of Billy Cunningham’s message to his team.
I thought of those Fitchian shenanigans while listening, in real-time I presume, yesterday to Coach Stevens design the game-winning play for Horford during a TO in the game’s final ten seconds.
I also thought there were more restrictions on how and when a network could use such footage.
images: AP, getty, boston herald, usa today
