Most would agree that winning a championship this season for the Boston Celtics would be considered an overachievement.  Danny Ainge has done a great job educating fans on realistic goals by trying everything in his power to trade for a top 5 players.  In fact, he has not stopped trying.

What are the expectations for the Boston Celtics this season?  Is an Eastern conference finals appearance good enough?  How bout if they get knocked out in the second round again, would that be considered the norm for this roster?  The uncertainty of this season, being 66 games in approximately 130 days, will cause some statistical predictions to swing either up or down.  Some teams may overachieve and some teams will underachieve due to the schedule.

Where that leaves the Boston Celtics is left to be determined. The Celtics might be able to sustain their 71.3 winning percentage over the four years since acquiring Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett, they will finish with 47 wins and 19 losses.  If they have the same season last year, winning 68.3% of their games, they will finish with 45 wins.   The year they lost Kevin, they won only 61% of their games, which would have them with 40 wins and 26 losses.  

I wanted to take a look at the good, the bad and the ugly for this up coming season for the Celtics.  With many experts all over the place on where they see this team finishing out the season, I thought we should look at almost every case possible.

The Good
I will come out and say that if the Celtics win the championship, I will be surprised.  Having said that, the good for this team is to scare the crap out of the Bulls and the Heat.  Neither of these two teams would want to see a 47-19 Celtics team that will end up with either the 1st, 2nd or 3rd seed with that record.  Give the Celtics home court and they will win, plain and simple.  Making the point to achieve home court their biggest goal for playoff success.  The Celtics can give any of the higher seeds a run for their money. This will have to be constituted as a good season.  Living in New England warps the expectations on Boston sports teams.

The Bad
The bad will be a first round exit.  If this team’s winning percentage drops to under 60% then we turn into a team paying for over the hill players with no real prospect.  A winning percentage under 60% means that Rondo did not continue to raise his level of play, which tells us he is not the ideal candidate for the rebuild post Big Three.  This leaves the team with Paul Pierce for a lot of money, Rajon Rondo, Jeff Green (rfa..again), Brandon Bass, Avery Bradley and the rookies with $28 million to spend on 8 spots.

The Ugly
An injury.  More importantly, an injury to either Paul Pierce or Rajon Rondo, since they matter more for the future.  This team can not afford an injury, not only would this season be lost (although I really like the Celtics bench this year over next, but I can’t spoil that post here!), their future would be turned into a lottery team praying for ping balls.  As we remember in the 2007 lottery, the balls weren’t too kind to us., Nor in 1997. Sigh.  This is getting depressing but you see where this can get really ugly. 

I didn’t intend to rain gloom and doom on your hopes, I just like to think outside the box and take on different angles.  I hope they succeed this season, I believe they will have a good season and give us some exciting playoff basketball again.  Will they be able to pull some surprises along the way and shock the world?  Like Kevin Garnett said, anything is possible.

Jacob Noble 12/20/2011 09:02:00 PM Edit
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20 Responses so far.

  1. I wouldn't say that PP is making a LOT of money. It's a bargain for a player that can do everything he can.

  2. JR says:

    Pierce is owed nearly 17 million next year, which I agree with Jacob will be a lot of money for a 35 year old Pierce at that point. I wouldn't call it a bargain.

  3. The problem we face in acquiring that new superstar there are only a couple ways to do it...trade (we have no assets), draft one (need to suck first for that draft pick) or you sign on in FA, which they are in a position to do (Dwight). After Dwight is where the unknown is, Deron would be a FA but Danny would have to flip Rondo somewhere. After them, we really don't know who that next superstar will be, we might find out who turns into one this year because Lebron, Wade, CP3, Melo, Amare, etc are all settled into teams. Who outside of that do you target?

  4. JR says:

    I honestly think that the only way for us not to go into a full rebuilding situation would require us trading at least one of the Big 3, probably 2. Fans don't want to hear this though. For a team like OKC or Chicago adding a KG wins them a championship. Because of KG's age, you would probably only receive Asik back or maybe Ibaka. He retires as a Celtic and you get nothing.

  5. Anonymous says:

    unlike ya! im a true celtics fan and i dont care about the good the bad and the ugly.. all i care about is the c's winning.. here how it goes down.. 2008 they won while no one expected them to win... 2009 they lost while expected them to win again.. 2010 no one expected them to make it to the finals but they did and got cheated.. 2011 %50 of ppl expected them to make to the finals again and they didnt.. 2012 WILL MAKE IT TO THE FINALS AND HOPEFULLY WIN...

  6. Anonymous says:

    Paul Pierce already is injured, so no prediction necessary there. I personally think were already looking at ugly with the failed trades and trade attempts, Jeff green, Paul Pierce now...

  7. J says:

    I love how people are writing this team off already. I guess they don't realize we have a better team than last year. Keep doubting us, this group will prove you wrong.

  8. I wish I could like button these comments

  9. BOCKNOWZ says:

    Ainge need to trade E.Moore,J.O`Neal,A.Bradley,S.Pavlovic,K.Dooling, & 1st round pick to Philadelphia for Evan Turner. Ainge need to sign Nate Robinson,K.Bogans,G.Arenas, & Ryan Hollins before Friday so we can beat Miami,NYK, & Chicago in the Playoffs.

  10. Anonymous says:

    all of that for just Evan Turner? are u mad?
    no way is Turner worth that much!!!

  11. Anonymous says:

    We need JR Smith and Wilson Chandler! We get those we top seed in the East. I just hope Danny can get them.

    This is what Doc Rivers should do: Sit down the veterans (Pierce, Allen, Garnett) when playing a low team like Washington, Sacramento etc...
    Play them when facing big opponents like Miami, NY, Chicago, LA, etc...
    If we do that, come playoff time, Veterans won't be as tired, and the bench will be consistent and will come through big time.


  12. Anonymous says:

    Celts dominated the heat last year during the season....people forget. Wade taking out Rondo doomed them in the playoffs.

  13. Anonymous says:

    regular season doesn't count, playoffs do

  14. Beantown says:

    I'm only speaking for myself, but anything less than a title is a disappointment. I wouldn't call it a "failure", a failure is what the Heat did with their boasting and celebrating only to lose in the finals. For the C's though, they're not trying just to lose in the ECF or the finals, they have one more shot this year and that's to win a title. It helps that they did it in '08 because it's not as much of a pressure cooker, but no way would I be happy with anything less than a title. I'll be proud of this team no matter what though, they're not like the Miami/LA housewives.

  15. DH says:

    I think if we can just add a guy like JR Smith or Wilson Chandler we will be OK, the problem is money though since I doubt either of those guys will sign for the vet's minimum.

    We have to decide whether we want to go with nostalgia and let the Big 3 finish their careers together as Celtics or start rebuilding. I was hoping with the lockout we would get a shortened season that would favor the older guys, but we got a bunch of crammed in games with double and triple headers instead. With JG gone, it's going to be rough but I want to give our Big 3 one more shot.

  16. Phil says:

    One article covering everything from a championship to ping pong balls...and I do see why. Different sport but look what happened to the Colts when hit with a perfect storm of age and injury.

  17. Anonymous says:

    i cant belive folks is saying pacers and sixers are better i dont think newyork is better than my boys in green smdh lets go celtics prove them suckers wrong

  18. Good article. Was thinking of writing something similar. Unless something crazy happens unfortunately I see another 2nd round exit.

  19. While I agree, we're not in the best position we've been in to win a Championship on paper... I still have faith. This year has to channel the 1969 Celtics. After winning 10 of the past 12 Championships, no one gave the Celtics credit and wrote them off as being a team in decline. They said they were too old. Same Jones was 35, Russel 34.. and though they appeared to have lost their spark during the regular season (something the 11-12 Celtics can't afford to do), they found their stride in the playoffs and ended up winning their 11th Championship. No one thought they could do it... but they had a lot of veterans fighting for what they saw as their last real shot. Sound familiar? Let's do this! Go Celtics!!!

  20. great points Michael Teoli!

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