15.6%. Actually, that number looks a little scary. Double it. 31.2%. Alright, that one seems manageable. This is how likely the Brooklyn pick falls into the top two. Add another 15.7% and then we have a 46.9% chance to at least land in the top 3. The numbers always seem to look a lot worse written out. Especially when you include the reality that we have a 22.6% and 26.5% chance at landing in the 4 or 5 slot respectively. But the lottery is the lottery and anything can happen. The percentages, as well as how recent teams with the 3rd-worst record have fared in the lottery were all laid out by CSNNE writer Jimmy Toscano this week.
Since 1994, here's how many times the team with the 3rd-worst record has landed at each spot:
1st - 5 times
2nd - 0
3rd - 3 times
4th - 4 times
5th - 9 times. Woof.
6th - 1 time (Celtics have a 4% chance to land here)
Obviously getting into the top 2 is the real prize, but in this draft, 3 through 5 or 6 arguably all have similar value. Whether its through a trade or drafting a young asset after Simmons and Ingram are gone, we are in a good position to get better. Let's just hope Danny Ainge's leprechaun will bring us some luck when the ping pong balls start to fall.
P.S. If those numbers depressed you, just remember that the Bucks took O.J. Mayo third in front of Russell Westbrook, Kevin Love and Danilo Gallinari. Don't be totally afraid of those 4th, 5th, and 6th picks.
Thumbnail Photo Credit: Jennifer Pottheiser/NBAE via Getty Images
Follow Brendan on Twitter: @brendan__quinn Brendan Quinn 5/06/2016 02:24:00 PM Tweet Edit