|Can it really be fixed?|
In the current system the team with the league's worst record has a 25% chance of getting the top pick, the second worst a 19.9% chance, third worst 15.6% and fourth worst 11.9%. Only the top three picks are actually determined by ping pong balls, with the final 11 non-playoff teams picking in reverse order of record after the drawing is concluded.
Here's what would happen under the new system, via Grantland's Zach Lowe:
"The league's proposal gives at least the four worst teams the same chance at winning the no. 1 pick: approximately an identical 11 percent shot for each club. The odds decline slowly from there, with the team in the next spot holding a 10 percent chance. The lottery team with the best record will have a 2 percent chance of leaping to the no. 1 pick, up from the the minuscule 0.5 percent chance it has under the current system.
The proposal also calls for the drawing of the first six picks via the Ping-Pong ball lottery, sources say."
This is definitely an improvement. In particular I like the fact that the first six picks will be chosen via the lottery instead of only the top three (although why not just have all 14 determined that way?). The fact that the odds don't change much amongst the top five would go a long way towards preventing teams from behaving like the Sixers did last year.
However, what's to stop clubs towards the middle or back of the lottery from tanking to move up? There's really no way get around this completely as long as one spot comes with better odds than another.
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Follow Mark Vandeusen on twitter @LucidSportsFan Mark Van Deusen 7/17/2014 12:03:00 PM Tweet Edit